Arable Market Report – 3 August 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

UK feed wheat futures reversed some of the prior week’s gains, following the sentiment of the global market. Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures (green line with markers, Figure 1) dropped 3.25/t (-1.6%) last week to close Friday at £196.50/t.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) decreased from 75 on 24 July to 70 on 31 July. The RSI remains in the overbought zone. This can trigger a pause or retreat in prices if there isn’t further supportive market news, but further news can still push prices higher.

Global grain markets remained volatile last week but broadly ended down under pressure. Prices began the week easing from the previous week's Black Sea-related gains, before being supported on Thursday as renewed attacks on grain infrastructure and shipping heightened concerns over potential disruption to exports from the region.

However, these gains proved short-lived, with global grain futures falling on Friday as traders took profits following strong gains through July. Market sentiment was also influenced by currency movements and broader supply fundamentals.

Despite the late-week decline, developments in the Black Sea continue to be a key source of uncertainty and volatility for global grain markets.

Last Thursday, the European Commission lowered its 2026/27 EU grain production forecasts, reflecting a tighter supply outlook. Soft wheat production is now estimated at 124.4 Mt, down from 126.3 Mt last month and 8% below the previous season. As a result, soft wheat exports have been reduced to 29.0 Mt, while end-season stocks are expected to fall to 12.9 Mt.

The sharpest revision was for maize, with EU production cut to 51.9 Mt from 59.9 Mt in June, driven by lower plantings and challenging growing conditions. This has increased the EU's projected maize import requirement by 5.0 Mt to 24.0 Mt. Barley production was also revised lower, now forecast at 51.1 Mt.

The cut to the maize crop was not a surprise given French maize crop conditions continued to deteriorate last week, highlighting the impact of challenging growing conditions. As of 27 July, just 34% of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, down from 38% a week earlier and well below the 69% recorded at the same point last year. This represents the weakest crop rating since comparable records began in 2011.

Meanwhile, the French harvests of wheat and barley are now complete.

Looking ahead, the key watchpoint for grain markets remains the flow of exports from the Black Sea. Recent attacks on shipping, port infrastructure and agricultural export facilities have heightened concerns about potential disruption to one of the world's most important grain export regions.

Any further escalation could restrict exports, tighten global supplies and increase price volatility, making developments in the Black Sea a critical factor for grain market direction in the weeks ahead.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

The domestic grain market followed the pressure in UK feed wheat futures from Thursday to Thursday. Feed wheat to be delivered in East Anglia in Hvst-26 was £196.00/t on Thursday 30 July, with no comparison on the week. For Nov-26, the price was quoted at £201.00/t, down £5.00/t week-on-week.

Market pressure was more limited in the north; delivered feed wheat (into Yorkshire, Sep-26) was quoted at £211.50/t, down £1.50/t week-on-week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

There was pressure across the week for Paris rapeseed futures. The Nov-26 contract decreased by 6.7% from Friday 24 to Friday 31 July, closing at £438.99/t (Figure 2).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 49, down from 63 the week prior, with prices moving closer to the support level at £430.00/t.

Oilseed markets came under pressure last week, driven by improving crop prospects and weakness across the global vegetable oil complex.

Further to that, crude oil markets came under pressure last week as tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing geopolitical risk premiums.

Additional pressure on crude oil prices came from expectations of increased OPEC+ production and concerns over weaker global demand, particularly from China and the United States. Nearby Brent crude oil closed Friday at $90.12/barrel, down 6.9% across the week.

One of the main drivers was forecasts for beneficial rainfall across the US Midwest, which improved soyabean prospects. The expected rain is particularly important as the crop enters the pod-setting stage, a key period for determining yield potential.

With weather concerns easing and expectations for a large US crop remaining intact, futures moved lower despite continued strong demand from the domestic crushing sector. Currently, 63% of US soyabeans are in good to excellent condition, with a further update to this due to be published this evening by the USDA.

Favourable weather conditions across the Canadian Prairies continue to support canola yield potential. Warm temperatures, without excessive heat, have helped later-seeded crops catch up in development, allowing flowering and pod fill to progress with limited risk of significant yield losses. Looking ahead over the next week, temperatures remain fair over the Prairies, which will continue to aid crop development.

Last Thursday, the European Commission reduced its forecast for EU sunflower seed production in 2026/27. Output is now projected at 9.5 Mt, down from 10.1 Mt estimated last month, although this would still represent an improvement on the 8.7 Mt harvested in 2025/26. The downward revision points to some deterioration in crop prospects since the Commission's previous outlook, but overall sunflower seed production is still expected to recover year-on-year.

Looking ahead, crude oil markets will remain a key driver for oilseed prices, particularly through their influence on vegetable oil and biofuel demand.

Market sentiment will also be shaped by trade developments between the US and China. Recent large-scale purchases of US soyabeans by Chinese state buyers have provided support to demand expectations. However, with favourable crop conditions in North America and expectations for ample global oilseed supplies, markets will continue to balance improving demand prospects against a broadly comfortable supply outlook.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £445.00/t in Friday’s survey, down £36.50/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery decreased by £33.00/t, to £456.50/t.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid-to-late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

AHDB released its first Harvest Progress Report of the season on Friday, showing that harvest has advanced rapidly across most regions under generally dry conditions.

While progress has been straightforward, cereal yields have been disappointing so far due to another season of limited rainfall since spring.

The report also highlights significant variation in yields between farms. Factors such as soil type and moisture retention, drilling date, use of organic fertilisers, previous cropping history, and variety choice all influenced crop performance.

Northern Ireland

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

N/A – not available

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