Arable Market Report – 29 June 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

There was marginal pressure across all UK feed wheat contracts during the week as sterling strengthened against the euro, closing Friday at £1 = €1.1588. In contrast, there was marginal support in new crop Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-26) which gained €0.50/t across the week to close Friday at €209.00/t.

The Nov-26 contract lost £0.65/t or 0.4%, to end Friday’s trading at £177.50/t (green line with markers, Figure 1). This is below both the 20-day (dashed black line, Figure 1) and 50-day rolling average (solid back line, Figure 1).

Global grain markets were influenced mainly by weather, harvest progress, currency movements, and crude oil last week, with wheat and maize finishing mixed rather than in a clear trend.

Chicago wheat and maize were weighed down by ongoing harvest pressure and generally favourable weather. By contrast, Paris wheat and maize found support from hot, dry conditions across Europe, which raised concerns about crop development.

The hot, dry weather in Europe continued to affect crop condition ratings. In France, maize conditions, as of 22 June, fell to an eight-year low, with 76% rated good or excellent, down from 84% the previous week. Soft wheat ratings also declined, with 74% rated good or excellent, down 2% week-on-week. The French ministry of Agriculture and Food now expects maize production could fall by as much as 30%, reflecting both reduced planted area and the impact of the heatwave. This is a critical stage for the crop, as it is entering silking, when it is especially vulnerable to heat stress. Conditions in France are expected to ease as the heatwave moves further east into Eastern Europe.

The European Commission also cut its forecast for EU-27 common wheat usable production by 0.6 Mt, to 126.3 Mt.

The US market has mostly ignored the European heat so far, but there could be some support this week because large parts of the US Midwest are running 4 to 8°C above normal seasonal temperatures. The market will be very sensitive to any further signs of crop stress.

Attention will now turn to the USDA June acreage report and quarterly grain stocks report, due out on Tuesday evening. Analysts expect US maize area to be slightly lower and total US wheat area to be slightly higher than the USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report. Any big surprise versus trade expectations could move global grain and oilseed markets sharply.

Crude oil is another important factor for the week ahead. Prices have been under pressure recently, but markets remain cautious because of tensions in the Middle East. Over the last few days, US-Iran tensions escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, before signs emerged of a pause in the attacks and the possibility of renewed talks.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Old crop delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, Jul-26) was quoted at £190.00/t, with no comparison on the week. New crop (into East Anglia, Nov-26) was quoted at £181.50/t, gaining £2.00/t week-on-week.

Bread wheat (into North West, Nov-26) was quoted at £220.50/t, gaining £1.50/t across the week. While in Northants, bread wheat (Nov-26) was quoted at £209.50/t, gaining £1.00/t week-on-week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased by 1.1% (£/t) from Friday 19 to Friday 26 June, closing at £447.44/t.

The futures closed below the 20-day and 50-day rolling average levels, which are close to crossing each other. When indicators like these get close or meet, it can reinforce a current price trend, or it can trigger a change in the price trend. The next support level is £430/t, which is calculated from the Paris futures level of €500/t. 

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased from 46 to 38 Friday to Friday, moving closer to the oversold zone (30).

Global oilseed markets were generally supported by weather risks for the 2026 crop, particularly the heatwave in Europe and North America. However, the downward trend in crude oil prices limited major increases in prices, as nearby Brent crude oil closed Friday at $71.99/barrel, down $8.58/barrel across the week. 

Chicago soyabean (Nov-26) and soya bean oil (Dec-26) futures increased by 1.2% and 2.0%, respectively. The price of both Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-26) increased by 1.6% over last week. Strong global demand notably from Europe and China supported the global rapeseed market. Further to that, rumours of Chinese interest in Australian canola also provided market support (Bloomberg).

The latest MARS European crop monitor report slightly decreased its forecast for the average rapeseed yield across the EU-27, from 3.19 t/ha last month to 3.18 t/ha this month. This figure is 1% lower than the five-year average. However, the forecast yield for sunflower seeds is 2.08 t/ha, which is 6% higher than last month and 5% higher than the five-year average, as a large sunseed crop is expected to be harvested this autumn in Europe.

The EU Commission has decreased the EU-27's rapeseed production forecast for the 2026/27 season from 20.85 Mt to 19.80 Mt. Meanwhile, EU-27 imports have decreased from 5.90 Mt to 5.70 Mt. The EU's production of sunflower seeds in 2026/27 is expected to reach 10.10 Mt, up from 8.90 Mt last month, given the improved yield prospects mentioned above.

Demand for U.S. origin soya beans remains strong. Data from the USDA estimated US net export sales (week ending 18 June) of soyabeans, for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, totalling 455.4Kt and 902.2 kt, respectively. This was at the higher end of trade estimates.

Looking ahead, there could be some volatility in commodity prices this week. Tomorrow the USDA will publish Grains Stocks and Acreage reports. Market analysts are anticipating an increase in the US soyabean area estimate from the March Prospective Plantings, at the expense of maize.

Chicago futures will be closed on Friday due to the US Independence Day national holiday. 

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £446.50/t in Friday’s survey, up £5.00/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery increased by £7.00/t, to £458.00/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £462.50/t, up £6.00/t on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Last Friday (26 June) we published a crop development update for 2026 harvest. Our latest crop development report estimates that by 22 June 2026, 58% of winter wheat across the UK was rated good or excellent, down from 64% a month ago due to dry weather. Nationwide, 80% of winter oilseed rape crops are in good or excellent condition. This is up slightly from the 78% reported last month and is still notably above last year, when 55% of winter oilseed rape was in good or excellent condition.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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