Arable Market Report – 24 August 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures contract (green line with markers, Figure 2) gained £2.00/t (1.0%) last week. The contract ended Friday at £205.00/t.

Friday’s price was approx. £1.00/t higher than Dec-26 Paris milling wheat futures in £/t on the same day.

When UK feed wheat futures are above the equivalent Paris milling wheat futures in £/t, it can make imports more attractive. This suggests that for UK feed wheat futures to rise, either Paris futures will need to rise, or sterling will need to soften against the euro.

A likely next resistance line is £207/t. Resistance lines are price levels that prices may find it harder to move above. This is based on Paris wheat futures at €240/t and an exchange rate of £1 = €1.16; it was also the recent high price from 23 July.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was 60 on Friday, up slightly from 59 on 14 August.

Grain futures prices rose last week after the Pro Farmer crop tour in the US reported poorer-than-expected potential for maize crops. Dec-26 Chicago maize futures gained 5.2% over the week and ended Friday’s trading at a new contract high.

Based on the tour, Pro Farmer forecasts the US maize crop down 10% from 2025’s record at 389.8 Mt, with yields down 7%. While still the third-largest crop on record, it is a bigger fall than the USDA predicts.

Earlier this month, the USDA forecast a 6% year-on-year fall in production to 406.8 Mt, with yields down 3%.

Late-season rainfall can still influence US yields. The weather conditions for US maize crops are likely to remain in focus over the coming weeks as the start of harvesting approaches.

Meanwhile, wheat futures showed smaller gains than maize prices.

As the flow of news about the Black Sea conflict slowed, traders reportedly booked profits at the end of last week, reducing last week’s gains. LSEG also reports that markets are now waiting for more evidence of importers switching origins.

Meanwhile, the first data on the quality of the 2026 French wheat crop showed above-average quality (FranceAgriMer & Arvalis).

Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures rose 1.4% Friday-Friday, and Dec-26 Paris wheat futures gained 0.7%.

The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2026/27 by 4.3 Mt last week to 816.7 Mt. The cut partly reflects poorer prospects in Europe, including the UK, due to the sustained heat this summer. The global crop is now forecast at 27.5 Mt below last season.

Meanwhile, the latest forecasts from the IGC also indicate increased pressure on markets from the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea. The IGC reduced its forecasts of exports from Russia and Ukraine and increased its forecasts for their stocks by the end of 2026/27.

This suggests that Russia and Ukraine would hold 28% of wheat stocks in major exporting countries at the end of this season, up from 18% at the end of 2025/26.

The conflict is likely to remain a key influence on prices in the coming weeks.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Bread wheat to be delivered into the North West in September was £232.00/t as at the end of Thursday. This was up £6.50/t from the previous week’s survey.

Bread wheat to be delivered in Northamptonshire in November was reported at £224.00/t.

Trade was generally described as quieter than usual for the time of year.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available.

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures (blue line with markers, Figure 2) fell 1.1% last week in £/t to end Friday at just over £461/t. However, the contract held above the 20-day rolling average (black dashed line, Figure 2).

The 20-day rolling average may act as a support line for the contract. Support lines are price levels that can be harder for prices to fall below. But if the contract price moves below the 20-day rolling average, it could face further pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped from 49 on 14 August to 45 on 21 August. This reflects the change in price direction in the latter part of last week and indicates a loss of market momentum. 

Concerns about US soyabean crop potential and stronger crude oil prices were key drivers of oilseed prices last week. However, a pullback in vegetable oil prices towards the end of the week led to weekly price declines for rapeseed prices.

Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures fell 1.3% last week, while Nov-26 Winnipeg canola prices declined by 2.4%.

In contrast, Nov-26 Chicago soyabean futures gained 3.9% over the same period.

The market focused on US soyabean crop potential as the annual Pro Farmer crop tour took place. The tour showed variable conditions for soyabeans in key US states. Alongside the worries about maize crops, this variability supported oilseed prices last week. 

On Friday evening, Pro Farmer released forecasts based on the crop tour. The company forecast US soyabean production at 124.4 Mt, above the USDA’s record forecast earlier this month. The company cautioned that late-season weather will still influence the final crop size.

Meanwhile, nearby Brent crude oil futures rose by 6.6% last week to $94.39/barrel due to concerns about the situation in the Middle East escalating.

The United Arab Emirates suspended trading with Iran midweek, while the US stated it will announce new tariffs for Iran’s trading partners this week. Crude oil prices are likely to be an important influence on oilseeds markets this week.

Limited exports of oilseeds and vegetable oils from Ukraine and Russia remain a key risk for the market.

Another longer-term risk remains that of the current El Niño weather event to palm oil production in 2027 and potentially 2028. There is often a lag in seeing impacts from the hotter, drier weather brought by El Niño to South East Asia on palm oil output.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Delivered rapeseed prices showed small declines between our surveys on Friday 14 and 21 August. This follows gains in the previous two weeks.

Last week rapeseed delivered into Erith in August was reported at £468.00/t, down £0.50/t from 14 August. Meanwhile, the price for rapeseed to be delivered in November was down £1.00/t week-on-week at 473.50/t.

There were slightly larger declines to the prices for rapeseed to be delivered into Liverpool and East Anglia, showing adjustments to the regional price relationships.

The price for November delivery into Liverpool was down £1.50/t week-on-week, while the equivalent price for East Anglia declined £2.00/t.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Last Thursday, AHDB released estimates of cereal stocks held by Merchants, Ports and Co-ops (MPCs) at the end of June 2026. MPCs held less home-grown wheat (-9%), less imported wheat (-18%) and less home-grown barley (-7%) than a year earlier. Meanwhile, they held a little more (+2%) maize, echoing a rise in imports in June. MPCs also held 25% more home-grown oats at the end of June 2026 than a year earlier.

Defra also released estimates of on-farm grain stocks in England and Wales at the end of June. While there is some variation across the regions for wheat and barley (data not available for oats), the headlines show:

• Wheat stocks are estimated at just 351 Kt, a fall of 46% from June 2025 and the lowest level for June since 2000.
• Barley stocks at their lowest since 2022, at an estimated 111 Kt. This represents an 18% decline year-on-year.
• Oats stocks are estimated to be 24% below 2025 at 39 Kt, but above June 2024’s level (16 Kt).

This stock data and more will feed into the end-of-season estimates of UK cereals supply and demand in 2025/26. These are due out from AHDB on Tuesday 22 September.

This Thursday (27 August), Defra plans to release its estimates of the 2026 cereal and oilseed areas in England. 

AHDB’s next harvest progress report will be out this Friday (28 August).

Due to insufficient quotes, we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereal prices for 21 August 2026.

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