Arable Market Report – 20 July 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures (green line with markers, Figure 1) gained £10.25/t (5.5%) last week at £196.25/t.

The Nov-26 contract is currently the nearest time contract, known as the “nearby”. Friday’s price was the highest price for a nearby contract for almost two years.

The contract moved above all recent resistance levels last week. The next key resistance level is likely to be the psychological threshold of £200/t.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 62 on 10 July to 76 on 17 July, reflecting the increase in market momentum. The RSI is now in the overbought zone (above 70). This can trigger a pause or retreat in prices if there isn’t further supportive market news, but further news can still push prices higher.

Grain futures rose sharply last week as the conflict in the Black Sea escalated further, while concerns persist about European crops. Buying by speculative traders was also a factor.

Russian exports from the Sea of Azov, which represent up to 25% of the country’s total exports, remain curtailed by Ukrainian strikes.

Meanwhile, exports are also reduced from key Ukrainian ports after renewed Russian airstrikes. UAC, a Ukrainian farmers’ union, estimates the closures affect around a third of Ukraine’s grain export capacity.

While early harvest results from Russia and Ukraine look positive, the risks around access to this grain are rising. Strikes against shipping continued over the weekend.

As the French wheat harvest nears completion, this morning Argus forecast the crop (exc. Durum) at 30.8 Mt. This is down 8% from 2025 and 6% below the five-year average due to the hot weather.

With the German wheat harvest getting underway, the farm co-ops’ association DRV cut its forecast by 0.7 Mt to 21.9 Mt. This would be 5% smaller than in 2025/26. DRV also predicts a 5% year-on-year fall in barley production and a 10% fall for oats.

The hot weather also continued to impact maize crops in their critical “silking” stage in Hungary and Western Europe. In France, just 41% of maize is now in good or very good condition (FranceAgriMer).

However, Chicago maize futures (Dec-26) rose less than wheat futures. This was due to higher estimates of the 2025/26 Brazilian maize crop, plus forecasts for cooler, wetter weather in key US maize areas this week.

Due to the heatwaves in Europe, the International Grains Council (IGC) cut over 4 Mt from its 2026/27 global maize crop forecast made in June. At 1,306 Mt the maize crop would now be 37 Mt below last year and 17 Mt below demand.

The IGC also reduced its forecast of the EU wheat crop from June by 1.8 Mt. But increases elsewhere, mainly for Argentina and Russia, kept the global total at 821 Mt. 

The conflict in the Black Sea is likely to remain the key driver of grain prices in the coming week. Russia and Ukraine are predicted to provide over 30% of wheat exports in 2026/27 (IGC).

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Feed wheat to be delivered in East Anglia in Nov-26 was £195.50/t on Thursday 16 July, up £13.00/t from 10 July. The latest price is also £19.00/t higher than the East Anglia feed wheat price a year ago for Nov-25 delivery.

Bread wheat to be delivered in the North West in Nov-26 was £231.00/t on Thursday. This equates to a premium to Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures of £37.00/t.

A year ago, the bread wheat price for Nov-25 delivery in the North West was £228.00/t.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract increased by 4% (approx. £18/t) from Friday 10 to Friday 17 July, closing at approx. £468/t (Figure 2).

After testing it, the futures crossed above the nearest resistance level of £460/t last week. The next nearest resistance level is £475/t, which is calculated from the Paris futures level of €560/t. 

The relative strength index (RSI) increased from 50 to 66 Friday to Friday, moving closer to the overbought zone (70).

The oilseed markets were generally supported by an increase in geopolitical risk and crude oil prices, which in turn pushed up vegetable oil prices. Uncertainty in the Middle East and the Black Sea region is making global commodity trade more unpredictable and riskier.

Market participants are also paying close attention to weather-related issues in the USA and Europe. Concerns about El Niño also helped push Malaysian palm oil futures prices up.

Chicago soyabean oil (Dec-26) and soyabean (Nov-26) futures increased by 5.0% and 1.0%, respectively, over the week. Technically, Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-26) closed Friday slightly above the strong support/resistance level of $12/bushel.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures rose 15.9% last week, reaching $88.10/barrel on Friday.

According to the USDA, net export sales of soya beans for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons totalled 188.3 Kt and 1,769.6 Kt, respectively, for the week ending 9 July.

Export sales for the 2026/27 season were higher than trade estimates and more than three times those of the previous week and the same period last year.

The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a 2.7% increase in US soya bean crushing in June compared to May. This represents an increase of 15.7% compared to June 2025.

The USDA's Crop Progress Report estimated that 65% of the planted soya bean crop was in good or excellent condition as of 12 July, which was 1% higher than previous week.

Paris rapeseed and Winnipeg canola futures prices (Nov-26) increased by 4.2% and 2.2%, respectively, last week.

The price of Paris rapeseed futures has reached its highest level since December 2024.

In Canada, concerns about the impact of the weather on crops have decreased as temperatures have cooled down.

According to the European Commission, EU rapeseed imports reached 46.5 Kt by 12 July in the 2026/27 season, which started on 1 July. This is a 59% decrease compared to the 114.3 Kt imported over the same period the previous year.

In terms of rapeseed exports from the EU, it sent 5.7 Kt to the UK in the 2026/27 season by 12 July, down from 7.3 Kt in 2025/26. 

China has approved imports of Australian canola by private crushers, marking a further easing of restrictions that had largely blocked the trade since 2020. Previously, only state-owned trader COFCO was permitted to import limited trial shipments (LSEG).

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith (Hvst-26) was reported at £459.50/t in Friday’s survey, up £15.50/t from the previous week.

The price for November delivery increased by £14.00/t, to £471.50/t. For February 2027 delivery, the price was £475.00/t, up £14.00/t on the week.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid-to-late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

The latest UK trade data from HMRC shows wheat imports in May (307 Kt) increased compared to April, while maize imports (154 Kt) decreased. The import total for the season so far (July 2025 - May 2026) for wheat is 2.33 Mt, down 17% on the same period last season. Season-to-date maize imports are down 26% compared to last season, at 2.16 Mt. 

Barley exports for the season so far reached 438.7 Kt in May, but the total remained behind last year’s pace of 647.9 Kt. The UK exported 23.8 Kt of barley exported in May 2026. Meanwhile, oat exports so far this season totalled 91.4 Kt, after 5.1 Kt was exported in May.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

Due to insufficient quotes, we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereals prices for 17 July 2026.

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

N/A – not available

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