Arable Market Report – 17 August 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

The Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures contract (green line with markers, Figure 2) pushed above the key £200/t level last week. The contract closed at £203.00/t on Friday, up £3.50/t (1.8%) from a week earlier.

The Nov-26 contract’s highest price to date of £207.00/t (reached on 22 July) could prove to be the next key level. Prices could face some resistance around this level, but this will depend on the market news this week.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped from 66 on 7 August to 59 on 14 August.

Global grain prices rose for a second week running, supported by worries about exports from Russia and Ukraine. Rising crude oil prices (see oilseeds section) and concerns about US crops also featured.

There is growing focus on the reduction of exports from both Russia and Ukraine, in months when the countries typically ship large volumes.

Industry sources estimate that Russian grain exports fell 20% year-on-year in July, with steeper year-on-year reductions expected for August (LSEG).

This follows earlier strikes and the suspension of operations at Russia’s top wheat exporting port in the Black Sea, Novorossiysk.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian port at Izmail has also suffered damage. Ukraine’s Ag ministry reported grain exports down 10% year-on-year in the first 14 days of August, though some industry sources showed steeper falls.

Dec-26 Paris wheat futures gained 1.9% Friday-Friday, while Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures gained 4.8%.

US prices were also supported by concerns about low soil moisture levels in southern winter wheat growing states. Planting of the 2027 crop is fast approaching, usually starting in early September.

Meanwhile, Dec-26 Chicago maize gained 4.6% over the week, supported by signs of tighter supplies compared to demand in the US.

On Wednesday evening, the USDA reduced its forecast of the 2026 US maize yield by 0.14 t/ha from last month, to 11.35 t/ha. This was a bigger cut to yields than the market was expecting, according to a pre-report poll by Reuters.

A larger cropped area more than offset lower yields to take US maize production to 406.7 Mt, up 0.3 Mt from July. However, the USDA still cut stocks more sharply than the market was expecting, which supported prices.

The annual Pro Farmer crop tour in the US starts today and runs until Thursday to offer further insight into US maize yield potential.

Harvesting of spring barley, wheat and oats has begun in Canada. Markets will be looking to see if periods of contrasting weather and higher disease levels have impacted crop yields or quality.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Feed wheat to be delivered into North Humberside in September was reported at £212.00/t, with no week-on-week comparison available.

Bread wheat to be delivered into the North West in September was £225.50/t, with November delivery at £228.00/t.

The price for November delivery quoted a £27.00/t premium over the Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures price on Thursday. A month ago (16 July), the price for bread wheat to be delivered into the North West in November was £37.00/t above the Nov-26 futures prices.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available.

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures (blue line with markers, Figure 2) gained 1.9% last week in £/t to end Friday at just over £466/t.

The price gains were slightly lower in £/t as sterling rose against the euro. On Friday, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported £1 = €1.1703, up from €1.1660 a week earlier.

Market news last week pushed the contract above both the most recent resistance line (horizontal grey dashed line, Figure 2) and the 20-day rolling average (black dashed line, Figure 2).

A next key level for prices in £/t is likely to be £480/t, close to the recent high price reached on 23 July.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped from 53 on 7 August to 49 on 14 August.

The risk to rapeseed and sunflower seed exports due to conflict in the Black Sea pushed oilseed prices higher again last week. Meanwhile, the conditions of sunflower crops remain a watchpoint amid ongoing dry weather for key European producers.

Higher crude oil prices, following recent developments over the Strait of Hormuz, also contributed. Nearby Brent crude oil futures were up 6.0% Friday-Friday.

Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures gained 2.3% Friday-Friday, and Nov-26 Winnipeg canola futures rose 5.0%.

While Winnipeg canola futures rose more steeply than European prices, cool temperatures and rain improved conditions for Canadian canola crops still in the pod-filling stage.

Concerns about planting winter rapeseed for harvest 2027 in Europe and Ukraine due to dry soils are also growing. Ukraine’s state weather service reports the typical ‘optimum’ planting window for crops in the country is 10-25 August. Paris rapeseed futures for Aug-27 reached its highest closing price so far on Friday of €521.75/t.

There were smaller gains for Chicago soyabean futures, with the Nov-26 contract up 1.4% over the week. Strong US export sales and a higher demand forecast helped lift prices, despite a larger crop forecast.

The USDA reported sales of 641 Kt of US soyabeans to China by private exporters for the 2026/27 marketing season last week.

In its monthly report, the USDA increased its forecast of US crush demand in 2026/27 Mt by 0.8 Mt. This offset most of the increase to the already record US crop forecast. The USDA now predicts the 2026 soyabean crop at 123.0 Mt, up 1.2 Mt from July due to a larger cropped area.

US soyabean crops will be in focus again this week as the annual Pro Farmer crop tour gives its view on yield potential. Last week the USDA trimmed its 2026 US soyabean yield forecast by 0.03t/ha to 3.54t/ha.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Delivered rapeseed prices rose last week, broadly echoing the trend in Paris futures prices in £/t.

Rapeseed delivered into Erith in August was reported at £468.50/t, up £13.00/t from our previous survey on 7 August. Meanwhile, the price for rapeseed to be delivered in November was up £10.00/t week-on-week at 474.50/t.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

Last Thursday HMRC released trade data for June 2026, so we can now see UK imports and exports for the whole of the 2025/26 marketing season. This includes:

• Wheat imports of 284 Kt in June. As a result, UK wheat imports in 2025/26 totalled 2.615 Mt, 15% less than in 2024/25.
• Maize imports of 233 Kt in June, taking the season total to 2.395 Mt. This is down 23% from 2024/25.
• Rapeseed imports of 59 Kt in June. In total, the UK imported 949 Kt of rapeseed in 2025/26, up slightly (7 Kt) from 2024/25, but still below 2021/22 (972 Kt).
• Barley exports of 40.4 Kt in June, meaning the UK exported a total of 479 Kt in 2025/26. This is a 32% decline from 2024/25 and the lowest total since 2012/13.
• Oats exports of 1.9 Kt in June. However, in total in 2025/26 the UK exported 46% more oats than in 2024/25 at 93 Kt.

AHDB’s latest harvest progress report showed that yields have continued to disappoint as harvest has progressed across the UK. Yields and quality also continue to vary considerably.

With 85% of the wheat area cut, quality has generally been good, but average yields for the farmers in the survey remain 13% below the five-year average. The picture for oat (harvest 80% complete) and spring barley (harvest 54% complete) yields is even more challenging.

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