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Smallest English barley area since 2014: Grain market daily
Thursday, 28 August 2025
Market commentary
- Nov-25 UK feed wheat futures gained £0.65/t yesterday to settle at £169.40/t, though there were smaller gains or slight dips for further forward contracts. The May-26 contract only rose £0.05/t to £180.35/t and the Nov-26 contract fell £0.05/t. This was despite further pressure in both Chiago and Paris wheat and maize futures.
- Globally grain prices remain under pressure from a positive global production outlook this season. The USDA showed that US maize crop conditions remain strong earlier this week. Improved weather conditions have raised expectations around the next estimates from the Australian government next week (2 September). Harvest progress in the Black Sea region was also a factor.
- Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures gained €4.75/t to close at €476.00/t, (approx. £410.60/t), supported by strong sunflower seed prices and technical trading support.
- Both grain and oilseed markets will be watching forecasts for Canadian production, out later today.
Smallest English barley area since 2014
The results of Defra’s 2025 June Survey of Agriculture, released this morning, show larger English wheat and oat areas but sharply less barley and oilseed rape.
English wheat area up in 2025 as barley falls to 11-year low
| 000 hectares | 2020-2024 average | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 vs 2024 % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 1,514 | 1,580 | 1,402 | 1,525 | +9% |
| Barley | 858 | 799 | 849 | 742 | -13% |
| - Winter barley | 337 | 391 | 325 | 302 | -7% |
| - Spring barley | 521 | 408 | 524 | 439 | -16% |
| Oats | 150 | 134 | 148 | 162 | +9% |
| Oilseed rape | 306 | 342 | 250 | 204 | -18% |
Source: Defra
For more details on the estimates by crop, please click on the links below.
The 2025 English wheat area is estimated at 1.53 Mha by Defra, up 9% from 2024 when wet weather severely limited autumn cropping. This also represents a slightly higher year-on-year rise than AHDB’s Planting and Variety Survey reported for England and Wales combined back in June.
However, the 2025 English wheat area is still below 2023’s 1.58 Mha, and the 10-year average of 1.59 Mha. Wheat areas have been under pressure in recent years from difficult planting windows, changes to farm policy, grass weed challenges and more.
Defra estimate the area of barley for harvest 2025 at just 742 Kha, down 13% from 2024 and the smallest since 2014.
The area of winter barley, down 7% on the year, is a very similar decline to that reported in AHDB’s Planting and Variety Survey for England and Wales. However, Defra show a sharper fall in the spring barley area. Defra estimate the English spring barley area at 439 Kha, down 16% on the year, though still above 2023’s level (408 Kha).
Winter barley has lost ground from challenging autumn planting conditions and crop economics, as well as the reduced need to get an early entry for oilseed rape. The spring barley area fell back from the high level seen in 2024 when wet conditions forced many growers to favour spring-sown crops.
The English oat area in 2025 is estimated at 162 Kha, a 9% rise from 2024 and only 7 Kha below the recent high seen in 2020. This is a slightly smaller year-on-year rise than AHDB’s Planting and Variety Survey reported for England and Wales.
The UK oat area is likely to have been supported by improved weather in the latter part of last autumn and good spring planting conditions this year. Changes to English farm policy potentially also contributed.
At 204 Kha, the 2025 English oilseed rape area is 18% below 2024’s already low level. It is a very similar percentage year-on-year fall to that reported for England and Wales in AHDB’s Planting and Variety Survey.
The oilseed rape area has fallen notably in recent years due to pest pressure and markets driving poorer economic performance. This is the lowest English oilseed rape area in electronic records (back to 1983).
Often larger cropped areas bring expectations for larger crops. However, the impact of highly challenging weather this year on yields mean production is unlikely to rise in line with the gains in cropped area. Our latest harvest report points to an average UK wheat yield some 9% below the average of the past 10 years, with the average to date for oats down 13%.
The extreme variability in yields from farm to farm means it may take a while before we get a final picture on UK yields and quality this year. But below-average yields are likely to notably limit the extent to which the larger areas cause rises in wheat and oat production.
For barley, the smallest area for 11 years and a lack of optimism over yields reported so far, will mean a smaller English crop this year.
While by no means universal, oilseed rape yields are overall offering a bright spot for some in this challenging year. This could reduce the extent to which the lower area drives English oilseed rape production down year-on-year.
Defra will release area estimates for more crops in England in September, followed by the first official estimates of English production on 9 October.
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