IGC forecast record global grain production in 2021/22: Grain Market Daily

Friday, 26 March 2021

Market Commentary

  • UK feed wheat futures (May-21) fell further yesterday, closing £3.10/t down to £193.90/t. New crop futures (Nov-21) also fell yesterday after regaining a little ground on Thursday, closing at £164.00/t.
  • French soft wheat condition remained unchanged week-on-week, with 87% still rated good or excellent in the week ending 22 March, according to FranceAgriMer. For spring barley, the first estimate pegged 92% of crops in good or excellent condition,up from 86% last year.
  • Also, IKAR agricultural consultancy recently increased Russia’s 2021 wheat crop up 1.8Mt to 79.8Mt.

IGC forecast record global grain production in 2021/22

Yesterday, the International Grains Council (IGC) produced their latest world forecasts. For total grains, the world projection for 20/21 was raised by 9Mt, to 2,224Mt. The report also pointed to record production for 2021/22, totalling 2,287Mt. This record crop will be rise of 63Mt on the revised 20/21 production figure.

While the IGC has forecast increased production this season, rises in both trade and consumption figures have resulted in carryover stocks pegged back 2Mt from the February report, to 609Mt.

Carryover stocks are predicted by the IGC to remain the same for 21/22, with increased consumption offsetting rises in production.

Wheat

For wheat, the 2021/22 new crop is forecasted to be 790Mt, a rise of 16Mt from the 774Mt forecasted production this season. This is on account of rising production in Argentina, Ukraine, the US and the European Union. The biggest forecasted increase to wheat production is in the EU, following the rebound in wheat area, rising 12.4Mt to 136.8Mt.

However, Russia, Canada and Australia are projected decreases in their production – although Australia’s forecast is following record breaking production this season.

Overall, the increase forecast for global production (15.4Mt to 789.6Mt) will partially off-set an increase in consumption (17.3Mt to 777.6Mt). A fall in predicted global export levels of 5.8Mt looks to support closing stock projections, which are 12Mt more for 21/22 than the previous season at 304.3Mt.

Maize

Maize production is also forecast to rise, with 2021/22 production pegged as 1,193Mt. This is an increase of 54Mt from this season’s forecast, with the largest increases attributed to increasing production in Ukraine and the US. The US crop is set to rise by 23.7Mt to 384.0Mt.

Demand for maize is forecast to rise more strongly than supply, with China and the US the big drivers here. As a result, closing stocks are forecast back by 10.3Mt on 20/21.

Soyabeans

World 2021/22 production of soyabeans is set to total 383Mt, up 22.5Mt from the forecasted 2020/21 production of 361Mt.

Production rises in Brazil and the US can be considered the main contributors to this increase. Brazil’s 2021/22 production is forecasted to rise 6.2Mt to 133.0Mt and the US production is forecasted to increase to 122.8Mt, up 10.3Mt from projections for this year.


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