Possible impacts of a hard Brexit on UK sheep meat production

We’ve looked across sectors and our analysis has highlighted that the sheep industry is potentially very sensitive to a “hard” Brexit. A loss of access to European markets could be very disruptive. Under a hard Brexit the UK is expected to be over supplied with sheep meat. How much depends on how trade between New Zealand and the UK and EU changes due to tariffs put in place. We expect UK prices to decline and EU prices to increase relative to each other, which might lead New Zealand to switch destination to the EU instead of the UK, although there might be a limit to how much it can do this.