Arable Market Report – 1 September 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures closed at £215.75/t on Friday 28 August (green line with markers, Figure 1). This was up £10.75/t (5.2%) over the week and the contract’s highest price so far.

Reflecting the upward momentum in prices, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved from 60 on 21 August to 80 on 28 August.

The RSI is now in the overbought zone, which can mean there’s a higher risk of prices changing direction. But bullish market news in the coming days could still push prices higher.

Meanwhile, the Nov-27 futures prices gained £6.00/t over the same period to £208.00/t, also its highest price so far.

Grain futures rose sharply last week following reports that Russia was considering increasing its missile strikes against Ukraine. The reports dimmed hopes that grain exports from the Black Sea could pick up.

Buying by speculative traders was also reported to be a factor in the price rises. Nearby Chicago wheat futures reached its highest price since February 2023, with the Dec-26 contract up 12.1% Friday-Friday. Dec-26 Paris wheat futures gained 5.4% over the same period.

There are reports that Russia is re-routing some exports through the Baltic Sea. However, initial forecasts for September suggest total exports will stay constrained. Meanwhile, LSEG reports that there’s a long queue for Ukraine’s ports on the Danube River. 

The EU Commission cut its forecast of the EU-27 maize crop by 1.8 Mt to 50.1 Mt based on updated yield forecasts. Last year the bloc harvested 60.2 Mt. The smaller maize crop will mean more wheat, barley and oats being used for animal feed in place of maize.

Yesterday, wheat futures eased slightly after Turkey reported it was suggesting a plan to Russia and Ukraine for safe grain exports through the Black Sea. But the focus this morning is on the impact of further overnight strikes.

The Black Sea is likely to stay a key driver of prices this week, as the market continues to assess availability elsewhere.

This morning, the Australian government revised up its forecasts for wheat and barley production in 2026/27. This follows recent rain and larger-than-expected crop areas.

The 2026/27 Australian wheat crop is now pegged 3.1 Mt higher than in June at 29.9 Mt, with barley up 2.3 Mt to 16.4 Mt. The crops would now be 17% and 3% lower than last year, respectively. Meanwhile, the oat crop was down slightly from June but still slightly ahead of last year (+3%).

Dec-26 Chicago maize futures gained 5.5% last week and edged higher again yesterday because of ongoing worries about the US crop. The USDA held its crop rating broadly stable last night and expects to start reporting on harvest progress next week.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Feed wheat to be delivered in September in East Anglia was reported at £213.00/t, with November delivery at £215.50/t. No week-on-week comparison is available.

Meanwhile, prices for bread wheat rose from the previous survey.

The price for bread wheat delivered to the North West in November as at the close of trading on Thursday 27 August was reported at £241.00/t. This represents a rise of £6.50/t from a week earlier.

Bread wheat to be delivered into Northamptonshire in November was up £5.50/t over the same period to £229.50/t.

The bread wheat price for North West delivery equated to £28.50/t above the Nov-26 UK feed wheat futures prices on the same day. Meanwhile, the price for Northamptonshire delivery was £17.00/t above the Nov-26 futures price.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available.

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures gained 1.5% last week, approx. £7.10/t, to close at £468.25/t on Friday (blue line with markers, Figure 2).

The contract moved back above the 20-day rolling average (black dashed line, Figure 2). It also held between the recent resistance and support lines last week, which points to some consolidation around recent price levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved up from 45 on 21 August to 64 on 28 August.

Yesterday, the Nov-26 contract declined by approximately £2/t to just over £466/t.

Global oilseed prices rose last week amid worries about the situation in the Black Sea and US soyabean crops. There was also support from US soyabean export sales and higher grain prices, while potential adjustments to an aspect of US biofuel policy capped gains.

Friday to Friday, Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures gained 1.5%. However, there were stronger gains for Nov-26 Chicago soyabean futures, up 3.9%, and Nov-26 Winnipeg canola, up 3.1%.

Yesterday, Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures edged down 0.4% to €544.25/t, while Nov-26 Chicago soyabean futures were unchanged.

Last night, for a second week running, the USDA reduced the US soyabean crop condition scores by more than the market had expected. As of 30 August, 58% was in a good or excellent condition, down from 60% a week earlier. According to a poll by LSEG, the market had expected 59% this week.

The EU Commission cut its 2026 rapeseed crop estimate by 0.3 Mt to 19.4 Mt last week, largely due to lower area estimates. This is now lower than last year. The Commission also trimmed its sunflower crop estimate by 85 Kt to 9.45 Mt as a larger area mostly offset a lower yield estimate.

Sunflower harvesting is now underway in France. Agritel describes early yields as very disappointing. 

Crop areas for harvest 2027 also remain in focus, with welcome rain in Europe. However, Ukraine warned that reduced farm income due to limited exports could reduce the planned areas for all crops to be harvested in 2027 by a quarter.

However, this morning, the Australian government revised up its canola crop forecast to 7.27 Mt. This is still 5.3% smaller than last year’s crop, but 1.09 Mt higher than it forecast in June partly due to a larger area than expected.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures fell 5.4% last week. However, the price recovered some of those losses yesterday after the first US strike against Iran in almost a month. The nearby price yesterday was $90.49/barrel.

The conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East are likely to be key drivers this week.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

The price for rapeseed to be delivered into Erith in September was reported at £472.50/t with November delivery at £476.50/t. Both prices were £3.00/t higher than those in the survey on Friday 21 August.

Please note that this survey gives an indication of prices as of late morning on a Friday. As a result, these prices may show some differences from the week-on-week change in futures prices.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

AHDB’s third harvest progress report of 2026, published on Friday, showed that harvest is into its closing stages. As combines have moved further north, progress has slowed due to wetter conditions and crop moisture levels have risen.

But while some crops have performed better in northern areas, this has brought only modest improvements to the national picture. Read more in the full report.

There was also insight into English crop areas from Defra, which released the results of its June Survey of Agriculture on Thursday. The survey estimates that the English crop areas on 1 June were:

• Wheat: 1.497 Mha, a fall of 1.8% from 2025 but still well above the level in 2024.
• Barley: 673 Kha, down 9.2% from 2025 and the smallest since 2012. A small year-on-year rise of 1.6% in the area of winter barley to 307 Kha, was more than offset by a 16.7% fall for spring barley to 366 Kha.
• Oats: 129 Kha, down 20.9% and the smallest English area since 2017.
• OSR: 276 Kha, up 35.5% year-on-year and the largest since 2023.

The total cereals crop area estimate is smaller than other data had suggested, down 5.1% year-on-year. This puts even greater focus on yields and areas in Scotland to determine the total UK crop size.

Defra plans to release provisional estimates of the English cereal and oilseed rape crops on 8 October.

Due to insufficient quotes, we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereals prices for 28 August 2026.

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