Wheat rallied after USDA’s first 2026/27 estimates: Grain market update

Wheat futures increased after the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on 12 May offered an initial insight into expectations for the 2026/27 season.

Chicago wheat futures were the main driver, with the Dec-26 contract gaining 6.0% by the close of trading on 12 May. Meanwhile, Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-26) increased by 3.6%. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-26) increased by 2.7% and reached the contract’s highest level since February 2025.  

Estimated world wheat ending stocks for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons were lower than the average trade estimate, by 3.7 Mt and 5.5 Mt, respectively, supporting prices (Table 1).

Table 1. Global ending stock estimates for wheat (million tonnes)

Source: USDA, LSEG

The USDA’s projected ending stocks for 2026/27 are 4.2 Mt lower than 2025/26, at 275.0 Mt. The largest reduction is in the US (-4.7 Mt), although stocks also decreased in the EU (-2.3 Mt), Australia (-1.4 Mt), Canada (-1.3 Mt) and Russia (-0.9 Mt).

According to the USDA's forecast, US wheat production in the 2026/27 season could be the lowest in fifty-three years, also adding support to prices. This is due to a smaller planted area in the US, together with drought in the US Plains, which will reduce wheat yields.

The forecast for smaller stocks in 2026/27 will make markets more sensitive to threats to global supply in the weeks ahead.

However, compared to the five-year average, the USDA’s May forecast of global wheat ending stocks for the 2026/27 period was still up by 1.3% (Figure 1). This could limit the market reaction, unless the supply risks increase further.

Figure 1. Global ending stock estimates compared to the five-year average

The USDA’s forecasts for global ending stocks in 2026/27 were also lower than the average trade estimate for maize (Table 2) and soyabeans (Table 3).

Table 2. Global stock estimates for maize (million tonnes)

Source: USDA, LSEG

Global maize ending stocks for the 2026/27 season could be 6.5% lower than in the previous season and 8.9% lower than the five-year average. If confirmed, this would also be the lowest level of global maize ending stocks since the 2013/14 season.

Table 3. Global stock estimates for soyabeans (million tonnes)

Source: USDA, LSEG

Although global ending stocks of soybeans and rapeseed for the 2026/27 season are higher than the five-year average, current prices are being supported by higher crude oil prices and biofuel demand.

Looking ahead

Weather impacts will be key in the coming weeks. Winter wheat conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, and particularly the US, will be a key driver of price movement. While for maize, developments in Brazil's second maize crop (impacting 2025/26 stocks) and maize planting in the US, the EU and Ukraine are watchpoints.

Following the USDA’s WASDE May report, Chicago and Paris maize futures showed lower price increases compared with wheat, as the 2025/26 world ending stocks were higher than the average trade estimate. Maize prices have limited the increase in UK feed wheat futures to a certain extent, compared to other wheat futures.

In the UK, the price difference between milling wheat and feed wheat is influenced by the UK crop size and quality, plus global price trends. Poor conditions for US winter wheat are underpinning global futures prices for milling-quality wheat, which may have knock-on impacts.

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