Wednesday, 11 December 2019
By Chris Gooderham
Our GB milk deliveries estimate for November is provisionally put at 992m litres. That is just 2m litres (0.2%) ahead of our forecast, 8m litres (-0.8%) below November last year, and the lowest level delivered in November for three years
Following our September Milk forecasting forum, we expected production for the rest of this season to be slightly down on last year. This was because, although silage stocks looked plentiful and of good quality, they were expected to give less push to yields than the high levels of concentrate fed in 2018. The latest milk delivery figures support this earlier assumption.
The milk forecast is updated every quarter and a new forecast will be published imminently, taking the projection through to the end of 2020.
There was additional complexity to the milk production estimates from mid-October to mid-November as a result of Tomlinson’s going into administration and a number of farmers having to find a new buyer. Our daily deliveries survey covers approximately 75% of GB delivered volumes, but sudden changes in milk buyers can throw the weightings temporarily. We always adjust the weightings to try to take this into consideration, but changes can only be clarified once official data is available. Those clarifications have now been made.
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