North America pork market update: production expands amid trade uncertainty

• US pork production continues to run ahead of expectations on heavier carcase weights, though rising cold stocks and a near -12% fall in cutout values point to softening domestic demand.
• Canadian output is on course for a record, up a forecast 2.5% in 2026, but weaker exports and low-cost Brazilian competition are holding hog prices close to year-ago levels.
• Mexican production is rebounding, up a forecast 5%, despite disease pressure, while soft consumer demand and heavy import reliance keep the market subdued.

The USA is the second highest pork producing country in the world, with total pork production in 2026 is forecast to be 12.7 million tonnes, about 1.1% above 2025 production.

The USDA report stronger than expected summer pork production, with federally inspected slaughter numbers up by less than 1% on the year in June and July. Pork production increased by 2% on the year in both June and July, reflecting the increase in average dressed weights. While numbers remain positive compared to last year, the national hog herd has been falling, so increases in dressed weights has been a key factor in maintaining pork production in the US.

Average dressed weights increased from 210lbs (95kg) per head to 214lbs (97kg) per head.

With cold stocks of pork cuts rising 9.4% in July year-on-year, demand seems sluggish in the US. This is also reflected in price, with wholesale pork cutout value declining in July to $101.26 per cwt, close to 12% below year-on-year levels.

Margins remain positive in the US, but concerns about Farm Bill negotiation delays are fuelling fears of rising Prop-12-associated costs.

The USA is the second largest exporter of pig meat globally behind the EU27, shipping 2.5 million tonnes in 2025.

US pig meat exports increased by 2.7% on the year, over the January to July period. This increase was mostly attributed to Japan’s continued growth in 2026, up 16.6%, and Mexico’s steady increase of 2.6%, mostly in the first quarter of the year.

Even so, 2026 exports are expected to be 3.3 million tonnes, 2.9 percent above those of 2025.

Figure 1: US monthly exports of pig meat (incl. offal) by partner country

Source: US Census Bureau via TDM LLC

Figure 1 shows the monthly export volume of pig meat from the USA, in thousands of tonnes in the period spanning January 2024 to July 2026.

Competition from Canada explains the reduction in US exports to Mexico. Brazil has also started to increase it’s exports to Mexico, compounding the competition the US faces.

US quarterly export forecasts for the rest of 2026 have been revised lower, reflecting continued weakness in shipments to Mexico as competition with Canada and Brazil intensifies, alongside demand uncertainty across key Asian markets. The third-quarter forecast is cut by 9 thousand tonnes to 757 thousand tonnes (up 1.7% year-on-year), and the fourth quarter by 4.5 thousand tonnes to 866 thousand tonnes (up 3.2%). For the full year, exports are now forecast at 3.3 million tonnes, around 2.9% above 2025.

Canadian hog slaughter continued to climb through June, reaching 10.7 million head, up 2.1% on the year, with growth in the west (+3.7%) outpacing the more modest gains in the east (+0.8%). Higher throughput drove almost all the 2.4% rise in pork production, as carcase weights edged up just 0.3% over the same period.

As in the US, output is being underpinned by productivity gains rather than herd expansion, with growth in the sow herd still limited. On this basis, Canadian production is forecast to rise 2.5% in 2026, supported by added slaughter capacity and keeping output on track for a record.

Canadian hog prices firmed seasonally into Q2 2026 but fell short of expectations across most provinces, sitting below year-earlier levels in most markets. Slightly larger supplies weighed on trade for much of the quarter, while softer domestic and export demand failed to lift packer buying. With production expected to build in the second half and exports easing, prices are likely to track close to year-ago levels through the rest of 2026.

Exports have been mixed, down 1.1% by volume in April but up 8.4% in value, leaving year-to-date volumes 11.4% lower. Sharply reduced shipments to China, South Korea and the Philippines more than offset strong growth to the US (+25%) and Mexico (+20%), while flows to Japan held steady. As with the US, low-cost Brazilian pork continues to displace Canadian product in key markets.

Adding to the uncertainty, the US–Canada–Mexico trade agreement, which underpins duty-free trade in pork and live animals, was not renewed by the 1 July deadline and could face revision, though it remains in force for now.

Mexico's hog production rebounded in Q2 2026, despite persistent regional health challenges linked to PRRS and PEDv, with sustained productivity gains – underpinned by heavy investment in the sector – driving the recovery. Those gains are expected to slow in the second half as returns come under pressure, but production is still forecast to grow 5% on the year.

Federally inspected slaughter is up 12% year-on-year heading into summer, its highest since late 2025 and well above the five-year average.

Hog prices fell sharply in Q1 2026 before stabilising near historical averages through spring and early summer. Larger domestic supplies and modestly higher imports have continued to cap price gains and soften packer demand, leaving many producers at or below breakeven. A modest recovery is expected as supply and demand gradually rebalance.

Weaker consumer demand is adding to the pressure, reflecting a challenging economic backdrop. Ham prices remain 18% below year-earlier levels on ample supplies from higher production and imports, while abundant competing proteins have intensified price competition at retail. Anticipated support from the FIFA World Cup has so far proved limited, even in host cities.

Mexico imported 766,200 tonnes of pork between January and May 2026, virtually unchanged on the year. Lower shipments from the US (-1.6%) were offset by stronger flows from Canada (+13.9%), while volumes from Brazil fell 7.2%. The US remains by far the dominant supplier at nearly 79% of total imports, though Canada continues to take market share.

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