Wednesday, 9 October 2019
- Yesterday, UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) rose slightly to £138.00/t off the back of sterling weakening to close 0.7% down.
- With trade seeing limited new purchases for October, we were unable to publish a FOB price yesterday. The potential implementation of tariffs in the event of a no-deal Brexit have meant ports are currently ‘near to full’ for export schedules before the impending deadline.
- So far this week, Paris rapeseed futures (Nov-19) have increased €1.25/t to close at €388.25/t yesterday.
Current marketing year sees record EU rapeseed imports to date
EU imports of rapeseed have hit record levels this season as the continent tries to meet its import requirements. A difficult growing season for both the domestic and the European crop has left the continent requiring c.5.5Mt in imports, according to the EU commission.
Since 1 July, the EU has imported just over 2.04Mt of rapeseed by 6 Oct, according to the EU commission. This import volume is 92% higher than last year for the same period, making it the largest on record. EU exports of rapeseed have declined 78% over the same period.
Widespread pest damage and dry conditions last year, in conjunction with a reduced EU rapeseed planted area, resulted in a production figure of 16.93Mt. This is 20.6% lower than the five-year average. According to the EU commission balance sheet, rapeseed usage figures for the EU point towards 22.94Mt, meaning a deficit of 6.02Mt is required to be met from imports and carryover stocks. With over 2.0Mt brought in already, import demand sits around 3.5Mt for the remainder of the season.
A front-loaded rapeseed export schedule for Ukraine has seen their share of EU import origins at 80.7%. However, this rapid schedule has meant almost 70% of Ukraine’s rapeseed exportable surplus has been shipped already, according to UkrAgroConsult. Therefore, other origins will be needed to make up the EU deficit.
Canadian origin import volumes into the EU have reached a record for July to October of over 290Kt so far, making up 14.2% of total imports. The wide price spread of nearby futures, averaging €72 (Matif vs. Winnipeg) since 1 July, has helped imports. However, end-uses for Canadian origin can be more challenging, given the GM traits of the rapeseed. A lack of GM markets for rapemeal and oil potentially limits the amount of Canadian supply that can be imported.
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