Arable Market Report – 27 April 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

It was a second successive week of support for May-26 UK feed wheat futures, which ended the week up £5.85/t at £182.00/t (Figure 1).

The contract surpassed the previous resistance level of £180.00/t. This level has now been adjusted to the psychological threshold of £185.00/t as the contract enters its final weeks of trading.

New crop (Nov-26) UK feed wheat futures increased by less than the old crop, gaining £3.95/t to reach £184.05/t.

Grain markets saw another week of support, with strong global demand and weather worries dominating market sentiment. May-26 Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures gained 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively across the week.

The main driver of the market gain was dry weather and worsening drought in the US Plains. The risk is especially for hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas.

Last week, the proportion of US winter wheat rated good or excellent was 30%, down from 34% the week prior. The market treated the ratings drop as confirmation that the Plains weather problem was real, not just a short-lived scare.

There were some rains at the end of last week that did reduce some market support. However, this is a critical watchpoint for the market and the USDA will provide an update to these scores this evening.

Further to this, the World Meteorological Organization forecast that there will be a strong El Niño weather event this year. This weather phenomenon usually means drier weather across Asia and Australasia, and in the past has notably impacted Australia’s wheat production.

In Europe and the Black Sea, crop potential is also in focus. Russian Agriculture consultancy IKAR, revised its 2026 Russian wheat crop forecast down 1 Mt to 90 Mt, due to weather related issues in the Central and Volga region.

FranceAgriMer (to 20 April) rated 83% of French soft wheat at good or excellent, down from 84% the week before. They also reported that 56% of French maize was planted, up from 31% the week before and 49% a year earlier.

Looking ahead, from now through to July, grain markets are likely to start factoring in a US maize planting premium as weather and planting pace shape crop expectations.

At the same time, the US-Iran war is likely to keep markets volatile. Input costs continue to fluctuate and steer spring planting intentions in the Northern Hemisphere, adding another layer of uncertainty in the market.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Thursday to Thursday, old-crop UK feed wheat futures (May-26) were marginally pressured, while new crop futures were supported. Meanwhile, delivered prices gained across the week.

Delivered feed wheat (into East Anglia, May-26) was quoted at £185.00/t, gaining £2.00/t week-on-week. Feed barley (into East Anglia, May-26) for the same month was quoted at £159.00/t, a discount of £26.00/t. Feed wheat (into Avonmouth, May-26) was quoted at £188.50/t, with no comparison on the week.

Bread wheat (into Northants, Apr-26) was quoted at £195.50/t, unchanged on the week. Bread wheat (into North West, May-26) was quoted at £208.00/t, gaining £0.50/t across the week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/a = not available

n/c = no comparison available

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

As mentioned in last week's report, this section now focuses on the Nov-26 prices. The May-26 contract will expire (stop trading) on Thursday this week (30 April) and has shown very high volatility over the past week as open interest has decreased. 

The Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract in £/t increased by 2.5% from Friday to Friday. Stronger sterling against the euro reduced the increase in £/t. After testing the recent resistance level of £440/t again on Thursday, the contract closed slightly below the level on Friday. The nearest support level is the 20-day rolling average of £435/t.

The relative strength index (RSI) increased from 51 to 57 Friday to Friday, reflecting the rise in prices.

In general, oilseed markets were supported by crude oil prices last week, resulting in a higher prospect of vegetable oils being used for biodiesel consumption.

Additionally, the Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 were bolstered by cold weather during the pre-blooming period for the winter crop in the Black Sea region.

The Nov-26 Paris rapeseed futures contract ended the week up 2.9% and was trading near the highest levels of that contract.

Dec-26 Chicago soya bean oil futures reached its highest level since November 2022, up by 5.3% over the week. This is usually a supportive factor for soyabean prices.

However, Nov-26 Chicago soyabean futures slightly decreased by 0.1% over the last week due to a lack of demand from China for US soya beans, plus the possibility of an increased area of soyabeans being cultivated in the USA in 2026. Increased energy prices make oilseeds more competitive than grains.   

US net export sales of soya bean for 2025/26 totalled 364.6 Kt for the week ending 16 April, which was in a range of analysts’ estimates but without any new sales for China.

Last Monday's USDA Crop Progress report showed that, as of 19 April, 12% of the US soya bean area had been planted, compared to an average of 5% over the past five years for this period.

In its updated monthly forecast, the International Grains Council (IGC) decreased world soyabean production for the 2026/27 season by 1.0 Mt to 441.0 Mt.

Meanwhile, the IGC increased its trade and consumption forecasts by 1.0 Mt and 2.0 Mt, respectively. Consequently, the balance could tighten.      

Last Thursday, Argentina's Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised its estimate for the country's 2025/26 soya bean crop from 48.5 Mt to 48.6 Mt. This was due to higher-than-expected yields, despite the estimated planted area being reduced.  

Brazilian soya bean volumes are entering the market as the harvesting campaign enters its final stages. According to the latest data from consultancy firm AgRural, 92% of the harvest has been completed. 

Expana has cut its forecast for EU-27 rapeseed production in 2026 to 20.6 Mt, down from 20.8 Mt projected previously due to mixed growing conditions in early spring (LSEG).

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in May was reported at £478.50/t in Friday’s survey, up £4.00/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) gained £6.00/t to £458.50/t.

It should be noted that trading activity for old crops is low, and the market is focusing on the new 2026 crop. 

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading. It is very important to be aware during this volatile period. 

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Friday 1 May, there will be an AHDB crop development update for 2026 harvest with updated condition scores.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

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