Arable Market Report – 23 February 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract

May-26 UK feed wheat futures ended Friday at £168.30/t, up £1.30/t from 13 February.

The prices (solid green line with markers in Figure 1) continued to hold just above the recent support line at £167/t.

The relative strength index (RSI) increased over the week moving from 41 to 54 between 13 and 20 February.

Broadly global grain markets gained last week (13 to 20 Feb) and driving much of this were weather uncertainties building in marginal risk premium into prices. Furthermore, there was short covering in the market from US-Iranian fuelled tensions, as the USA strategically moves assets to Europe and the Middle East.

Chicago and Paris milling wheat futures (May-26) gained 5.8% and 3.9%, respectively, week-on-week. This fed into the domestic market as UK feed wheat futures (May-26) gained 0.8%, closing Friday at £168.30/t.

The main weather driver across the week was concerns in the US plains over dryness and recent winter kill; the US wheat crop will be assessed as it emerges from dormancy.

In Europe, excessive rains are marginally deteriorating crop conditions, notably in eastern parts of France. FranceAgriMer rated 88% of French soft wheat as good to excellent (to 16 Feb), down from 91% the week prior, but still significantly better than last year (74%).

Last week was the USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, which gives one of the first insights into the soy/maize plantings for the new marketing year. The USDA estimated maize plantings at 38.0 Mha, down near 5% year-on-year and below the analyst expectations of 38.4 Mha (LSEG).

The reduction in maize area was expected given the price ratio between US maize and soyabeans. Moreover, these numbers are based on 10-year baseline projections, and the numbers in the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, due 31 March, could change.

The most critical watchpoints for the global market in the next few weeks are assessing the winter kill damage across the US and Europe and the planting of the Brazilian second maize crop, which will start to increase.  The market has priced in this large Brazilian supply, so any disruptions could mean market support.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

The domestic market remained relatively quiet last week and UK feed wheat futures (May-26) were marginally pressured by £0.10/t across the week from Thursday to Thursday.

Feed wheat for Feb-26 delivery into East Anglia was quoted at £168.50/t as at Thursday’s close, unchanged across the week. Meanwhile, feed barley for Feb-26 delivery into East Anglia was quoted at £155.50/t, £13.00/t below feed wheat.

Bread wheat to be delivered in the North West in Feb-26 was £190.00/t, unchanged over the last couple of weeks. However, May-26 was quoted at £193.50/t, down £2.50/t week-on-week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-26 contract, in £/tonne

May-26 Paris rapeseed futures in £/t gained to £426.36/t last week, Friday to Friday. Weaker sterling against the euro over the week supported prices in £/t. After crossing the nearest resistance level of £425/t during the week, prices closed just above this level.

It will be interesting to see if prices can remain above this level during the current week. Prices are well above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which could mean there’s an increased risk of a price correction.     

The relative strength index (RSI) decreased from 69 to 63 Friday-Friday moving out of the oversold zone.

Paris rapeseed futures May-26 ended the week up 0.7% at €488.50/t, a seven-month high, while the Nov-26 contract gained 1.2% to €471.00/t.

Last week, the price of Paris rapeseed futures was supported by the global vegetable oils complex, a weaker euro against the US dollar, weather-related risks for the 2026 winter crop in Europe, and rising crude oil prices.  

Over the past week (Friday to Friday), the price of Chicago soyabean oil futures (May-26) increased significantly, rising by 3.2% to reach the highest level since September 2023.

Support for Chicago soybean oil futures comes from the potential announcement by the EPA regarding US biofuel mandates, which could boost US biodiesel production and consequently increase demand for soybean oil.    

May-26 Chicago soyabean futures saw a slight change over the same period of time, while Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) increased by 1.1%. Supported by the general trend in the oilseed complex and the weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar last week, Winnipeg canola futures reached a seven-month high.

Chicago soybean futures were under pressure at the end of last week due to forecasts of a larger US crop area in 2026 and the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs.

Prices had previously increased due to positive sentiment surrounding China's additional purchases of US soybeans, untimely rainfall during Brazil's harvest, and an increase in the net long position of managed money funds in Chicago.

At the Agricultural Outlook Forum, the USDA projected that 34.4 Mha would be planted with soyabeans in 2026. This is an increase on the 32.9 Mha planted last year, and slightly above the average analyst estimate. The competitiveness of soyabean prices against maize has supported this expected increase in area.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures rose by 5.9% last week to reach $71.76/barrel, amid growing concerns over the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal and the further deterioration of relations between the two countries.

The weather in Argentina and Brazil will be crucial for soyabean crops and prices in the near future. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the rainfall in central and northern Argentina over the past week has provided much-needed relief for the 2025/26 soybean crop.

However, rainfall during the soybean harvest in Brazil could negatively affect the crop.         

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in February was reported at £449.00/t in Friday’s survey, up £5.00/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) gained £3.50/t to £425.50/t.

Despite the higher increase in the Paris rapeseed futures prices for the 2026 crop than for the old crop contract, the domestic delivered prices did not follow the same trend.       

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Friday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

We recently published an animal feed production outlook, fertiliser outlook and straw market outlook containing useful information for analysis and decision-making.

Compound feed demand is expected to stay elevated over the next 12 months, underpinned by tight forage stocks and broadly supportive livestock margins.

Over the last couple of years fertiliser prices have remained relatively stable compared to the volatility and huge spikes seen during 2022, which resulted from the energy crisis and changes in domestic supply of fertiliser. However, fertiliser prices increased in 2025, a rise of 14% compared to 2024.

A very dry spring and summer meant variable straw yields across the country, leading to supply issues in winter 2025.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

Due to insufficient quotes, we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereals prices for 20 February 2026.

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

Sign up to receive the latest information from AHDB

While AHDB seeks to ensure that the information contained on this webpage is accurate at the time of publication, no warranty is given in respect of the information and data provided. You are responsible for how you use the information. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AHDB accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused or suffered (including that caused by negligence) directly or indirectly in relation to the information or data provided in this publication.

All intellectual property rights in the information and data on this webpage belong to or are licensed by AHDB. You are authorised to use such information for your internal business purposes only and you must not provide this information to any other third parties, including further publication of the information, or for commercial gain in any way whatsoever without the prior written permission of AHDB for each third party disclosure, publication or commercial arrangement. For more information, please see our Terms of Use and Privacy Notice or contact the Director of Corporate Affairs at info@ahdb.org.uk  © Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. All rights reserved.