Arable Market Report – 20 April 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 UK feed wheat futures ended the week up £3.00/t at £176.15/t on Friday 17 April (Figure 1).

The domestic market reached its highest level since November 2025 last week but eased on Friday.

New crop (Nov-26) UK feed wheat futures increased by less than the old crop, gaining £0.90/t to reach £180.10/t.

The relative strength index (RSI) for the May-26 contract increased from 55 on 10 April to 57 on 17 April.

The market is still influenced by geopolitical situations, such as the wars in the Middle East and the Black Sea region. Weather risk is also an ongoing factor, with the focus now on US wheat crop conditions and the US maize planting campaign, which is just beginning. 

Across the week (10 to 17 April), Chicago wheat futures (May-26) increased by 3.6%, while Paris milling wheat (May-26) fell by 1.8%. Prices of Chicago wheat were supported due to concerns about dry weather in the US. The stronger euro put pressure on Paris grain futures last week. The currency’s influence could increase soon due to the upcoming interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve on Thursday 29 April. 

After the rally in crude oil and fertiliser prices this spring, the competitiveness of grains against other crops has worsened. As a result, we could see a reduction in the area dedicated to grain in the future.   

According to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA), the 2026 wheat area in Western Australia is forecast to fall by 17% to 3.68 Mha, which would be the lowest level since the 1992/93 season, down from 4.45 Mha last year. GIWA also forecasts an 8% larger barley and 33% larger oat area in the state.

A French growers' group has said that the area of France planted with maize could fall by 10–15% this year due to low prices plus higher energy and fertiliser costs for producers (LSEG).

On the other hand, the prospect of a higher level of maize production in South America is putting pressure on price sentiment in the short-term, as the Brazilian safrinha crop has not been impacted by a severe weather event. Last week, the Rosario Grains Exchange announced that Argentina's 2025/26 maize harvest is expected to reach a record 67.0 Mt due to higher area data, up from its previous estimate of 62.0 Mt and 50.0 Mt in the 2024/25 season.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

As of last Thursday’s close, the April delivered price of bread wheat in the North West was £206.50/t, which is an increase of £8.50/t compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the price of delivered bread wheat in Northamptonshire in April  was £195.50/t, with no comparison available.

After reaching low levels, the premium on domestic milling wheat is now trying to increase, supported by high fertiliser prices and weather concerns globally. For example, the premium into the North West (May-26) as of last week is £29.00/t to May-26 futures, at the end of March this was £26.00/t.   

The delivered price of feed wheat in East Anglia (April delivery) last week was £181.50/t, with no comparison available.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

n/c = no comparison available.

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, Nov-26 contract (£/tonne)

In a change from last week’s report, this section now focuses on the Nov-26 prices. The May-26 contract expires (stops trading) on Thursday 30 April, and in a contract’s final weeks the relationship with physical prices often weakens. 

Despite coming within touching distance of the recent resistance line of £440/t on Thursday, Paris rapeseed futures Nov-26 contract in £/t lost 1.1% Friday-Friday (Figure 2).

The contract ended the week at a little under £429/t and below the 20-day rolling average.

A relative strength index (RSI) of 51 would usually indicate limited market momentum. However, with such uncertainty in the external markets, further volatility in Paris rapeseed futures is likely.

The conflict in the Middle East was again the main driver of rapeseed prices last week. Nearby Brent crude oil futures fluctuated through the week as nerves about the ceasefire in the Middle East agreement ebbed and flowed. However, the price fell back sharply on Friday afternoon, after a ceasefire was announced between Israel and Lebanon, and the nearby price ended the week down 5.1% at $90.38/barrel.

However, nearby Brent crude oil futures are trading higher again this morning, around $95/barrel (11am) after tensions rose again over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz is now closed again, with the ceasefire currently due to expire on Wednesday.

After closing at €516.75/t on Thursday, supported by the expiry of May-26 options on Wednesday, the May-26 Paris rapeseed futures ended the week up 1.2% at €505.75/t. The last trading day for the May-26 contract will be next Thursday (30 April). Meanwhile, the Nov-26 contract fell 1.2% Friday-Friday to €491.75/t, due to the crude oil plus optimism over new season supplies.

Germany’s association of farm cooperatives (DRV) edged its forecast for the winter rapeseed crop up to 4.154 Mt from the 4.122 Mt forecast in March, now +4.5% on 2025. The French rapeseed area is 9% higher than last year at 1.38 Mha (Ag Min), with rises likely for sunflowers too.

Meanwhile, the industry organisation GIWA expects farmers in Western Australia (WA) to expand their canola, barley and oat areas for 2026/27 at the expense of wheat due to the cost of fertiliser and fuel. GIWA’s first forecast puts the WA canola area at 1.99 Mha, up 2% from the official 2025/26 area and the second highest on record, though GIWA predicts the final area could be higher. Last year WA grew 55% of the Australian canola crop.

May-26 Chicago soyabean futures fell 0.7% Friday-Friday, with the Nov-26 contract down 0.1% due to weaker crude oil prices, plus strong 2025/26 supplies. Brazil’s Conab also increased its crop estimate from 177.9 Mt to a record 179.2 Mt. However, price falls were limited as data from NOPA showed ongoing strong crush demand, and rains slowed early soyabean planting in the US.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Domestic rapeseed prices rose last week, with larger rises for old crop prices than new crop, and reflecting the changes in the Paris rapeseed futures at the time of the survey. However, it’s important to note that the Paris futures market moved lower again on Friday afternoon.

Trading activity reportedly remained low, especially for the remaining old crop months.

The price of rapeseed delivered into Erith in Nov-26 was reported at £452.50/t on Friday, up £8.50/t from 10 April but just below the price on 2 April (£454.50/t).

However, for May-26 delivery, the price into Erith was £474.50/t, up £14.50/t compared to the previous Friday. This is also the highest price reported for May-26 delivery into Erith in our survey; we first reported May-26 prices in June 2025.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

The latest UK trade data from HMRC shows wheat (166 Kt) and maize (161 Kt) imports slowed down in February, compared to January. This means the season total so far (July 2025 - February 2026) for wheat is 1.69 Mt, down 22% on the same period last season. Season-to-date maize imports are down 24% at 1.52 Mt.

In contrast, rapeseed imports from July 2025 to February 2026 rose by 3% to 665 Kt, compared to the season-to-date total last season.

Barley exports for the season so far reached 306.8 Kt after 35.5 Kt was exported in February 2026 but remained behind than last year’s pace of 379.1 Kt.

Meanwhile following exports of 19.2 Kt in February 2025/26, oat exports so far total 73.4 Kt. This is more than in the whole of 2024/25 (64 Kt) with four months of the season remaining.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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