Arable Market Report – 07 April 2026

This week's view of grain and oilseed markets, including a summary of both UK and global activity.

Figure 1. UK feed wheat futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 UK feed wheat futures ended the week up £1.45/t (+0.8%) at £175.10/t on Thursday (27 March to 2 April) (Figure 1). The domestic market continued its second week of support.

UK feed wheat futures broadly tracked sideways with the global market, however weaker sterling against both the euro and US dollar supported the domestic market week on week.

Based on Thursday’s close, the relative strength index (RSI) was 60, unchanged from Friday 27 March.

Despite some support at the start of the week, grain markets broadly tracked sideways over the last week. Prices were influenced by USDA acreage and stocks data, weather risk, export demand, and geopolitics specifically in the Middle East.

Nearby Chicago wheat futures (May-26) and Paris milling futures (May-26) were marginally pressured across the week, closing Thursday at $219.80/t and €202.50/t, respectively.

Last Tuesday’s USDA Prospective Plantings report was bullish for wheat and mildly bullish for maize relative to expectations. US farmers intend to plant 17.7 Mha of wheat in total, which was below trade expectations and down from 18.2 Mha in USDA’s February outlook. This wheat area is roughly 3% below 2025 and was the biggest bullish surprise in the report; it’s the lowest number since 1919.

The maize area was estimated at 38.6 Mha, which was above the average trade expectation and higher than USDA’s February view of 38.0 Mha. Even so, it was still down about 3% from 2025, so the report was not outright bearish, just less bullish than wheat.

Drought on the US plains has been driving some risk premium into wheat markets over the last couple of weeks.

Yesterday (data to 5 Apr) was the first USDA crop progress report for 2026. Winter wheat conditions were estimated at 35% good or excellent, down from 48% a year ago. The damage was concentrated in the Central and Southern Plains, where drought continued to stress the crop and raise yield risk. Kansas was still mixed, but Oklahoma, Texas, and Colorado had notably deteriorated conditions.

US maize planting reached 3% complete nationally, which was slightly ahead of last year and in line with the five-year average. For the market, the main message is that maize planting is starting normally, so there was no immediate supply shock from the progress report itself. Compared with wheat, the maize information looked more neutral: decent early planting progress and no major weather problem yet.

The Middle East remains highly volatile, with conflict and strikes continuing across the region, while markets are focused on the Strait of Hormuz and the risk to energy flows. President Trump has given Iran a deadline of 20:00 EDT Tuesday (01:00 BST Wednesday) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though his deadlines have shifted before.

Over the weekend, he warned Iran of “complete destruction” if it did not comply. Commodity markets are going to remain volatile in the short term.

Table 1. Global grain futures prices

Domestic cereal prices were marginally supported across the week. However, trade was reported thin given the bank holidays. Therefore, published prices were limited.

Delivered feed wheat (Yorkshire, Apr-26) was quoted at £186.50/t, up £0.50/t week on week. May-26 delivery was quoted at £187.50/t up £0.50/t over the same period. While harvest 2026 was quoted at £187.00/t, with no comparison on the week.

Table 2. UK delivered cereal prices

Figure 2. Paris rapeseed futures prices, May-26 contract (£/tonne)

May-26 Paris rapeseed futures in £/t increased from Friday to Thursday (27 March to 2 April), reaching just over £441/t. Weaker sterling against the euro over the same period supported prices in £/t. Prices are close to the 20-day rolling average, which could indicate the nearest level of support (Figure 2).

The relative strength index (RSI) fell from 54 to 52 Friday–Thursday and is indicating a lack of market momentum.

Paris rapeseed futures May-26 ended last week (2 April) up 1.1% at €505.75/t, while the Nov-26 contract gained 1.3% to €503.50/t. The price difference between old (May-26) and new crop (Nov-26) Paris rapeseed futures narrowed to €2.25/t.

Chicago soya bean futures and Winnipeg canola futures (May-26) rose over the week (27 March to 2 April) by 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Due to the colder-than-usual spring, it is likely that canola planting will be delayed in Western Canada.

The global oilseed complex was mainly driving crude oil prices last week. Nearby Brent crude oil futures rose by 7.8% last Thursday, reaching $109.03/barrel. Before the long weekend due to the Easter holidays, concerns about further escalation of the war in the Middle East increased, and the supply of energy passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The price edged up to $109.77/barrel yesterday.

US net export sales of soya beans for 2025/26 totalled 353.3 Kt for the week ending 26 March. These numbers were down by 49% on the previous week and by 18% on the previous four-week average. This market information limited the rises in the Chicago futures prices. The relationship between the US and China remains crucial for the prospects of US soyabean exports. 

APK-Inform has reduced its forecast for Ukraine's rapeseed exports in 2026/27 to 2.6 Mt from 2.74 Mt due to increased estimates of domestic consumption. However, Ukraine's sunflower oil exports are expected to reach 5.42 Mt in 2026/27, up from 4.3 Mt in 2025/26 (LSEG).

According to consultancy firm AgRural, as of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had harvested 82% of their 2025/26 soya bean crop. This figure is below the 87% reported a year earlier. With production prospects growing: StoneX now estimates Brazil's soya bean production is expected to reach 179.7 Mt in 2025/26, raising its outlook by 1% from a March projection (the USDA's March forecast was 180 Mt).

The USDA's Prospective Plantings report, published on 31 March 2026, showed a 4% increase in the area of soyabeans planted in the USA compared to the 2025 crop, but was at the lower end of trade’s estimates.  

The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) will be published 9 April 2026. Often the April report has a reduced impact because the next (May) report is the focus as it contains the first new season forecasts.

However, this month the market will be monitoring updates to the balance of oilseeds and vegetable oils, particularly in the context of a potential increase in biodiesel production.

Table 3. Global oilseed and oil futures prices

*Brent crude oil price per barrel

Rapeseed to be delivered to Erith in May was reported at £468.50/t in Thursday’s survey, up £11.50/t from the previous week. The price for November delivery (the 2026 crop) was up £9.50/t to £454.50/t.

These values are based on a survey conducted mid to late Thursday morning and may not fully capture movements in Paris futures by the close of trading. It is very important to be aware during this volatile period.

Table 4. UK delivered rapeseed prices

On Thursday 2 April, we published UK cereal usage data for February, covering human and industrial consumption, as well as GB animal feed production.

Compared to the previous season, the volume of home-grown wheat milled from July to February (including for bioethanol production) decreased by 1.3%.

For imported wheat, the volume milled decreased by 29.5% over the same period. Brewers, maltsters and distillers’ barley usage for the season to date (July–February) was down 18.7% on the same period in 2024/25. 

On 27 March, we published an AHDB crop development update for 2026 harvest. Our latest report estimates that by 23 March 2026, 82% of UK winter wheat crops were in good or excellent condition, the highest proportion since 2023.

Table 5. Delivered prices into Belfast*

Due to insufficient quotes we are unable to publish delivered Belfast cereals prices for 2 April 2026.

*Prices provided for indicative purposes

**Basis is imported/home-grown

n/c: no comparison

unch: no change in price compared to last week

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