UK exports activity: Monthly headlines from AHDB

The "Ovinpiades" (young shepherd competitions) and technical sheep farming days are key events, supported by numerous resources from the ruminant sectors designed to facilitate farm succession for future retirees and to support the establishment of tomorrow’s new farmers.

French lamb production down sharply in Q1 2025

According to Agreste, French lamb production dropped by 18% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 16,000 tonnes carcase equivalent. This also represents a 9% decrease compared to the five-year average (2020–2024).

One of the key reasons for this decline is the shift in the Easter calendar, with Easter Sunday falling on 20 April in 2025, compared to 31 March in 2024. This impacted slaughter volumes, especially in March.

Data from Interbev (via Ovinfos) also shows that the number of sheep slaughtered during the four weeks preceding Easter was down 6% year-on-year, despite a sharper peak closer to the holiday.

Moreover, the usual post-Easter slowdown in slaughter activity was more pronounced than in previous years.

Rising beef prices: beef consumption stalls

The sharp rise in cattle prices has not yet been fully passed on to retail prices, but household purchases are already declining. In the foodservice sector, menus are shifting in favour of pork and poultry.

Beef meat purchases in trays at the supermarket

A 9.6% drop — that's how much household purchases of fresh beef for home consumption fell in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2024, according to Kantar data relayed by FranceAgriMer.

This comes as the average purchase price rose by 5.7%, while overall meat and deli prices slightly declined (–0.9%).

Fresh minced beef held up (+0.5% in volume), as its average purchase price has not yet reflected the recent surge in dairy cow prices (+0.4%). Fresh minced beef also benefited from a decline in frozen minced beef sales (–1.3% in volume).

Overall beef consumption in decline

In March 2025, beef consumption based on supply balance fell by 3% compared to 2024, explains Idele. This supply balance method accounts for slaughter volumes (down), minus exports (up), plus imports (down).

Decline in beef imports

Indeed, in the first quarter, French beef imports dropped by 3%, particularly from the Netherlands and Spain, the latter now focusing more on North African markets. However, imports from Ireland and Poland have increased.

Foodservice and wholesalers adapt

Meat wholesalers report difficulties sourcing beef—whether domestic or imported. They are facing the steep price increases more directly than supermarket processed meat products.

In response, restaurants are adapting and revamping their menus. Chicken burgers are a top seller, and in sit-down dining, premium pork cuts are emerging as a credible alternative to red meat, thanks to their high-end image.

For example, the price of Iberian pork, a premium breed, has surged by 23% since the start of the year, driven by strong demand within the EU.

Ramadan 2025: What’s the takeaway from promotional activity?

On its LinkedIn account, a3distrib (NielsenIQ) shared an overview of the promotional activity for halal products during Ramadan 2025, which took place from 28 February to 29 March.

The panellist first noted an overall 25% increase in promotional pressure, driven in particular by halal poultry (+41.2%), the category that gained the most visibility in leaflets.

Though their share of voice remains much smaller, condiments and cold sauces also saw greater promotional exposure (+67.2%).

According to a3distrib, the decline in the number of promotional operations (-30%) and unique promotions (-16%) is largely due to the closure of Géant and Casino hypermarkets and supermarkets, which previously had a strong presence in the halal market.

Promotional activity round-up

Looking at retailers, the podium is as follows:

• Carrefour – 67% share of voice (+21.2 pts vs. previous year)
• Leclerc – 11% (-2.6 pts)
• Carrefour Market – 9% (-1.0 pt)
• Auchan – 9% (-8.3 pts)
• Intermarché – 3% (+0.3 pt)

On the brand side, Isla Délice enjoyed the highest visibility with 32% share of voice and the strongest growth (+2.8 pts vs. previous year), followed by:

• Réghalal (LDC) - 13% (-3.5 pts)
• Oriental Viandes - 9% (-4.3 pts)
• Isla Mondial - 8.8% (-1.1 pt)

Four Isla Délice SKUs were also among the top six most-promoted references, including:

• Déliss’ sausages (pack of 10)
• ready-to-roll puff pastry
• frozen royal pizza
• sliced dry beef sausage

Global sheep meat market in 2025: What does it look like?

While China remains the primary outlet for Oceania's sheep meat production, its imports are gradually declining. Among Europe's key producers, exports from Ireland and the UK are slightly slowing, whereas Spain is showing resilience.

China's dominant role but falling imports

China is both the world’s largest producer and the largest importer of sheep meat. In 2024, it imported 181,000 carcass equivalent tonnes (CET) from New Zealand and 208,000 CET from Australia – both figures in decline.

Chinese demand relies almost exclusively on Oceania, and Australian production is highly dependent on climatic conditions.

Australia: competitive but vulnerable

After tight years in 2020 and 2021, Australian slaughter numbers have increased, driven by herd rebuilding. The country remains highly competitive due to economies of scale and highly automated slaughterhouses.

However, extreme weather in early 2025 (floods and a cyclone) followed by drought risks could trigger another destocking cycle – leading to a high supply in 2025 but reduced future production potential.

Australia still depends heavily on Chinese demand but has sought to diversify due to geopolitical tensions. Exports to the US, its second-largest market, face uncertainty. Lamb is a premium, non-essential product there and if tariffs rise, demand could drop.

Hence Australia's renewed interest in an EU free trade agreement after negotiations stalled in 2023.

New Zealand: smaller herd, strong export presence

New Zealand’s sheep sector has shrunk over the past 40 years in favour of dairy and forestry. Despite a declining breeding flock, the country remains a major exporter.

Almost half of its sheep meat exports go to China, followed by the EU, UK, US and Canada.

Europe: Ireland and the UK slow down, Spain stands strong

The UK sheep flock hit a low in 2024 due to weather and health issues, with exports slowing down. Ireland shows a similar long-term decline, although France remains its main customer.

In contrast, Spain’s sheep sector is performing well: of the 99,000 CET produced in 2024, 43,000 were exported – nearly half to France. Spain's flexible industry allows it to export both live animals and meat. In 2024, live exports reached 1.6 million head.

This adaptability helps Spain manage disruptions, such as Morocco’s request to avoid animal slaughter for Eid, which was offset by rising demand from Algeria.

Low use of EU tariff quotas

Despite fears around free trade agreements, quota usage remains low. In 2024, New Zealand used 53% of its 134,000 CET EU quota, Argentina only 8% of 19,000 CET, and Australia 82% of its 8,900 CET.

However, a potential concern would be if Chinese demand drops significantly, pushing more Oceania product toward the EU.

What is the standard of living of French farm operators?

INSEE has analysed the standard of living of around 400,000 agricultural households in mainland France. These households include at least one farm operator.

The study shows that farmers are more often below the poverty line than the general population.

• In 2020, their average standard of living was €27,500, comparable to the general population, but with much greater income disparity: the wealthiest 10% earn 4.5 times more than the poorest 10% (vs. 3.4 for the total population)
• 17.7% of farmers live below the poverty line, compared to 14.4% of the general population
• Poverty affects 21.9% of couples working together on the farm, and only 10.5% of those with an off-farm job
• Standard of living rises with age, reaching €30,400 for those aged 61–65, and decreases slightly for retirees
• Education matters: farmers with higher education earn more, from €23,800 (middle school or less) to €37,800 (postgraduate level)
• Pluriactive farmers (those with other income sources, 29% of operators) earn more on average (€30,700 vs. €25,700) and are less frequently poor
• Crop-focused farms show better living standards (€31,300) and lower poverty rates (14.3%) than livestock farms (€23,300 and 20.4%)
• Among all, grain growers and winegrowers are the least affected by poverty (13.5% and 12.6%)

Agromousquetaires to invest €250m in production plants

French retail group Les Mousquetaires has announced a new investment plan of €250 million over the next five years to modernise its Agromousquetaires production sites. This initiative aims to further refocus its industrial activities on raw and plant-based products.

As industrial investment announcements multiply in France following the ‘Choose France’ summit, Les Mousquetaires Group is reinforcing its commitment to French industry. With this additional investment, the group intends to accelerate the modernisation of its Agromousquetaires factories, develop key strategic sectors and secure the supply of French agricultural raw materials.

Total investment of €750m over five years

This new investment comes on top of the €500 million plan announced in June 2024, during the 50th anniversary of Agromousquetaires. Thierry Cotillard, president of the group, had then outlined a bold vision to support and restructure its industrial arm.

Now, with a total investment budget of €750 million over five years, the group demonstrates a strong commitment to industrial sovereignty, food security, and sustainable agriculture. These funds will enable:

• The modernisation of equipment and facilities, improving efficiency and environmental performance
• The strengthening of strategic supply chains, particularly in the plant-based and fresh product segments
• Support for French agriculture, by favouring locally sourced raw materials and reinforcing long-term supplier partnerships
• Job retention and creation in regional territories, as Agromousquetaires operates over 60 production sites across France

This investment reflects broader national and European priorities—namely the reindustrialisation of food production, the promotion of sustainable practices and the reduction of dependence on imports.

Les Mousquetaires, through Agromousquetaires, remains one of the rare French retail groups to own a fully integrated industrial tool. This model allows better control over quality, pricing and origin – a major advantage in times of geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties.

In the context of rising consumer demand for transparency, sustainability and French origin, this investment strategy aims to meet future challenges while supporting the resilience and competitiveness of the French agrifood sector.

Coopérative U renews agreement in Charolais beef

Coopérative U has renewed its tripartite agreement in Charolais beef, initiated in 2018, with 250 farmers from the Terrena cooperative and its slaughtering and meat-cutting subsidiary, Elivia.

"For the past three years, with 5,000 cattle marketed annually, this initiative has become one of the largest contracted supply chains in France in the retail butchery sector," Terrena highlights.

The agreement allows the retailer to secure beef volumes for its private label at a time when French production is declining. On the upstream side, the contract provides visibility for the cooperative’s farmers.

“By guaranteeing producers an added value and a fair, stable price, this partnership supports the installation of young farmers in our regions and actively contributes to maintaining livestock farming in western France,” explains Terrena.

‘Supporting more sustainable consumption patterns’

“The contracting system and supply chain structuring we are developing at Terrena are essential for securing outlets and ensuring fair and stable income for farmers. The renewal of this partnership demonstrates the strength of our collaboration with Coopérative U and sends a positive message to our farmers and partners,” added Marc Réveillère, farmer and member of Terrena’s board, in charge of the ruminant sector.

The three-year contract is based on the specifications of La Nouvelle Agriculture (Terrena’s brand), combined with the Bleu-Blanc-Cœur label. It guarantees farming practices that respect animal welfare and the environment, notably through the emphasis on grass-fed cattle.

“The renewal of this partnership is part of Coopérative U’s commitment to supporting more sustainable consumption practices and promoting local, accessible, and high-quality production that meets households' expectations,” commented Flavien De Vaugelade, head of animal supply chain development at Coopérative U.

“Find this supply chain in the self-service meat section, with a range of individual cuts (steak, ribeye, etc.) and minced steaks under the U brand. The products will soon feature the new supply chain banner,” posted Bertrand Morand, head of supply chains and agricultural partnerships at Coopérative U, on LinkedIn.

Digital activities

Key results

• Over 1 million impressions in May, thanks to sponsored content and strong content relevance (the second month with these results)
• Clicks slightly decreased too, partly because there was no carousel format this month
• More than 283 profile views across platforms

In-store animations

There have been 21 in-store activities in the Hauts de France region and the south east, mostly in the Auchan supermarkets and hypermarkets.

Publication in trade press 

Quality Meat from Britain had a beautiful ad in the13 June edition of L’Hôtellerie Restauration, and it was great to see it placed alongside such strong industry content. This issue was packed with updates and stories that really reflect where the hospitality world is heading, and it felt like the perfect context for a brand like ours to be part of the conversation.

One of the key features this month was all about the new Michelin stars for 2025. There was full coverage of the plaque ceremony and a spotlight on the 10-year partnership between Michelin and METRO. The issue also gave some great insights into what is changing behind the scenes in the sector, from new kitchen innovations to big-picture topics like energy efficiency and gender parity.

Print-wise, the magazine reaches around 9,800 professionals directly and over 43,000 through total distribution.

The magazine has a strong national reach, with distribution covering the whole of France, especially concentrated in key tourism and gastronomy regions like Île-de-France, Rhône-Alpes, and the south coast. It’s widely read both in print (over 43,000 copies distributed, including around 9,800 paid).

Confirmation was received from the Friedrich Loeffler Institute on 14 June, and a day later more dead wild boars were found nearby, which are now being tested for the pathogen.According to the ministry, a restriction area will now be determined.

Tönnies wants to join The Family Butchers

The situation in Germany's meat industry is tense. The country's second-largest sausage manufacturer is therefore seeking help from the largest sausage producer. In "an extremely challenging economic situation", The Family Butchers (TFB) has taken a "decisive step toward stabilising the company," according to a statement by the Versmold-based company.

The Premium Food Group, as the former Tönnies Group is now known, intends to acquire the shares of shareholder Hans-Ewald Reinert. This involves a 48.75% stake in the company.

The second shareholder from the old group, Wolfgang Kühnl, will remain on board with his 50% stake. Reinert will focus on the "vegan business" of InFamily Foods Holding, which includes the veggie brand Billie Green. He will also "strategically continue" the Reinert-Bärchen brand.

The name TFB is still relatively new, having only emerged in 2020 from two family businesses, Kemper and Reinert. Perhaps its best-known product is the Bärchenwurst (bear sausage); this sausage with a face has been available, aimed primarily at children, for more than 20 years.

The Family Butchers currently employs almost 1,000 people, according to the 2023 annual report. This report says the company generated approximately €700 million. In 2022, an annual loss of almost €10 million was recorded, and a loss of €25 million was reported for 2023.

This was due, however, to unplanned costs for the restructuring and plant closure that had already begun. Even adjusted for these costs, TFB was unable to operate profitably and posted a loss of almost €5 million.

The situation in the German sausage market has not improved in the meantime. There is structural overcapacity in the market and rising costs. Regulatory requirements are increasing and although meat consumption has recently increased slightly again, this is still a concern for producers.

Number slaughterhouse employees increases

The number of employees in German slaughterhouses increased in 2024 by 6.4% compared to the previous year. A total of 329 slaughterhouses in Germany employed 56,006 workers.

This development primarily affects foreign workers who may have previously been temporary workers.Meat production also increased, with 1.3% more animals slaughtered in the first half of 2024, compared to the same period last year.

Pork

Slaughter pig price unchanged compared to previous weeks

Over the past few weeks, pressure on the price of pork for slaughter increased, with major slaughterhouses suggesting price reductions and volume cuts.

Supply remains manageable, with larger quantities reported only regionally. Furthermore, full slaughter weeks are now approaching again. The recommended price remains unchanged at €2.10/kg slaughter weight.

The pork trade is generally somewhat quieter and is falling short of expectations. Sales of grilled meat are slowing down and are barely boosting stores. On one hand, the changeable weather is dampening purchasing power, while on the other, higher meat prices are limiting consumer demand.

Both in the food retail and takeaway sectors, purchases are less frequent or in smaller quantities. Slight surpluses are even being reported for some cuts, particularly neck and shoulders. Prices remain largely stable.

Beef

Premium Food Group: No takeover of Vion sites

The Federal Cartel Office has not approved the acquisition of several Vion Food Group beef production sites by the Premium Food Group (formerly the Tönnies Group). The decision has met with great disappointment at the company's headquarters in Rheda-Wiedenbrück. The Premium Food Group is now reviewing the authority's detailed reasoning and will then decide on any legal remedies, according to a press release.

Vion issued a statement saying it acknowledged the Federal Cartel Office's decision and respects the outcome of the regulatory process. The decision has no immediate impact on Vion's day-to-day business. The company's transformation program has delivered strong results since the beginning of the year, and the company was successfully refinanced at the beginning of this year, the statement said. The German companies also continue to operate profitably.

Slaughter cattle

Trading on the regional slaughter cattle market continues at record price levels. Despite protests from slaughterhouses, further premiums are being achieved during the current slaughter week.

However, the price peaks appear to be slowly being reached, with premiums recently being more moderate. Current prices for young bulls in the O2 trading class are between €6.51 and €6.74 per kilogram and for O3 between €6.67 and €6.86 per kilogram.

Heifers in the R3 trading class are traded between €6.49 and €6.62, while O3 heifers are traded between €6.18 and €6.36 per kilogram, according to Agrarmarkt NRW.

Slaughter cows in central Germany and Saxony are currently traded in the O2, O3, P1, and P2 trading classes, with prices for O2 being €6.15, O3 €6.27, P1 €5.30, and P2 €5.61, according to Landwirtschaft Sachsen.

Lamb

Last week's price level remains unchanged this week. This suggests that supply has not yet increased as much as initially assumed.

However, this may also be related to the good weather and the associated hay harvest last week. A significant increase in supply is now expected in the coming week.

Pressure is also coming from English imported lambs, which are at a lower price level. If domestic supply increases significantly now, this will also lead to lower prices for slaughter lambs.

The national German average prices for lamb varies from €4.60 to €4.75 per kilogram of live weight class 1 (including VAT).

Prices

Lamb

Beef

May activities

BBQ days Bayreuth

When the grills are glowing and meat is sizzling on the grill on Father's Day, one thing is clear: BBQ Day is back. For the second time, the Maisel & Friends grounds are being transformed into a meeting place for barbecue fans from all over Germany.

The VIP BBQ on Father's Day was an extraordinary event in the traditional premises of the Maysels Brewery. Almost 500 enthusiastic grill fans and professionals turned out in fantastic weather and enjoyed the creations of renowned barbecue masters.

This time the meat focus was on lamb and guests were able to experience delicious English premium lamb for themselves. Wolfgang Müller, the exceptional chef who has previously been awarded two Michelin stars, prepared the lamb.

The highlight of the event was Dirk Freyberger's live butchering of a premium English lamb on stage, compered by renowned radio presenter Nik Herb.

AHDB Marketing Manager Tim Schäfer explained the background to the breeding, husbandry, and slaughter of English lambs to the interested guests.

Future events

Various marketing activities are planned for July and August - especially barbecue events with English premium lamb.

It will feature in the German Grill and BBQ Championship from 25-27 July on the Ferropolis peninsula.

And on August 9, a barbecue featuring English lamb will take place at the renowned SinGold Distillery's barbecue area Bavaria. Up to 200 participants from the region, as well as meat buyers, butcher and traders are expected.

Since 2007, more than a quarter of butcher shops have disappeared. South Holland had the highest number of butcher establishments, while Flevoland had the lowest. Interestingly, Zeeland had the highest number of butchers per 100,000 inhabitants at the beginning of this year, followed by Flevoland.

According to an analysis of recent CBS figures, butchers are the largest sector of all food specialty stores. At the beginning of this year, there were a total of 13,075 specialised food stores in the Netherlands. Butchers form the largest sub-branch with 1,980 shops, followed by liquor stores (1,820), bread and pastry shops (1,370), greengrocers (860), fishmongers (795), cheese shops (705), and poulterers (265).

Compared to the beginning of 2024, the number of specialised food stores decreased by 1.5%. Greengrocers experienced the most significant decline (-5.5%), while poulterers and shops selling chocolate and confectionery saw growth (+6.0% and +4.0%, respectively).

British lamb enjoyed at British embassy in The Netherlands

Last week, the British Embassy hosted the King's Birthday Party in the garden of the ambassador's residence in The Hague, and some 200 guests enjoyed lamb canapés sponsored by AHDB.

John Schilder attended the event on behalf of AHDB to celebrate King Charles III’s birthday. AHDB’s sponsorship was very well received. 

The Vegetarian Butcher in the hands of meat giant

The Vegetarian Butcher, a company producing plant-based meat substitutes and founded with the aim of combating factory farming, finds itself in a complex and controversial position. The company was started almost 20 years ago by Jaap Korteweg and grew into a successful brand that was taken subsequently over by Unilever.

Under Unilever's wings, sales quickly doubled, but at the beginning of this year, The Vegetarian Butcher was sold again, this time to Vivera, one of the largest meat substitute companies in the Netherlands.

Vivera now appears to have become part of JBS, a Brazilian meat processing company that is the largest in its sector worldwide. JBS slaughters huge numbers of cattle, pigs and poultry every day, and achieved a turnover of $90 billion last year.

High feed efficiency of grass ration due to energy

The research conducted by PPP Agro Advice shows that Dutch dairy farmers who achieve high feed efficiency mainly work with rations that contain a high energy density. This means that the cows in these farms consume more energy per kilogram of feed, which results in greater milk production.  

At the most efficient farms, the cows took slightly more feed, about a kilo of concentrate per animal per day, which led to a higher milk production of more than 5 kg milk per cow. Because they produced more milk, the concentrate dose per 100 kg of milk measured was lower than average. This underlines that not only the amount of feed, but the quality and energy density are important.

A possible explanation for the higher energy density is that these farms feed less grass silage (63.5% versus 73.5%) and more maize. In addition, they also feed extra concentrate with about 1100 vem and their grass silage has a higher energy value than average.

Number of sheep farms remain stable, flock size in decline

Van Loon Group aims for 7.5% hybrid meat products by 2027

The Van Loon Group wants to develop more meat with plant-based ingredients over next two years, with the goal that 7.5% of its meat products will be hybrid by 2027.

Although the group positions itself as frontrunners in this strategic area, it also experiences concerns: the political climate is worrying, as it discourages livestock farming, puts pressure on the vegetable sector and may impose stricter rules on migrant workers. Van Loon points out that the food supply will not be self-evident in the future.

The annual report, entitled 'Good source. Great food', mentions that the Van Loon Group will achieve a turnover of just over €1.03 billion in 2024. The company has approximately 2,400 employees spread over nine locations and sells 218,400 tonnes of meat products through retail, foodservice and industry. More than 90% of sales consist of fresh meat.

For the long term, the company has ambitious goals for 2030. For example, it wants to fatten more than a million Dutch pigs annually that carry at least the Better Life quality mark with one star. Currently, about 5% of pigs have a curly tail, but the company aims to produce meat from undocked pigs by 2030.

Van Loon notes that animal welfare and legislation sometimes conflict and argues for a revision of transport regulations to prevent waste of high-quality animal protein and to protect the incomes of pig farmers.

Why retailers are queuing up for hybrid dairy

Supermarkets are seeing an increasing demand for hybrid dairy products, which form a middle ground between traditional dairy and plant-based alternatives.

These hybrid products combine animal-based ingredients, such as milk or butter, with vegetable oils and fats, making them close to taste and texture of the original dairy products, but still more sustainable and sometimes cheaper to produce.

Consumers often find it difficult to go completely vegan, but they do want to contribute to the environment. That's why manufacturers are now offering more products that facilitate this transition, such as hybrid milk, yogurt, butter, and cheese. 

In addition to dairy, meat products are also expanding with hybrid variants. For example, the Group of Butchers is developing hybrid meats and barbecue sausages that contain less animal protein, so that consumers can still reduce their meat consumption without major behavioural change.

Taste remains the highest priority; Hybrid and vegan products should remain tasty to encourage repeat purchases.

The future of these hybrid products looks positive. They are not seen as a temporary intermediate step, but as a permanent part of the market.

The proportion of plant-based ingredients is expected to increase, while the products must still remain attractive and tasty. In addition, the market for plant-based alternatives such as fish, eggs and dairy beverages is expected to continue to grow, but the focus is mainly on improving taste and texture.

Hybrid products offer consumers a practical and accessible way to eat more sustainably without making major changes to their habits. 

Van Loon to focus on hybrid meat products

The Van Loon Group recently announced its annual figures for 2024, reporting a turnover of €1.03 billion. Around 3% of this revenue, equivalent to €30 million, comes from hybrid meat products.

In its CSR report for 2024, the company states that the market for meat substitutes has seen little growth in recent years. Many consumers find meat substitutes either unappetising or unhealthy, and there are limited prospects for improvement.

The Van Loon Group has therefore made the decision to stop producing meat substitutes and focus on hybrid products.  

Shrinking livestock herd costs Netherlands €1.5 billion and 13,300 jobs annually

The Dutch livestock population is set to decrease significantly over the coming years which, according to ABN Amro, could result in a loss of €1.5 billion for the economy and up to 13,300 jobs.

This decline is primarily driven by the nitrogen crisis, which has already led to interventions in animal husbandry. Through voluntary buyout schemes and reduction arrangements, it is expected that the livestock population will decrease by between 15% and 18% by 2030. 

Currently, 1,578 farmers have signed up for a so-called 'highly attractive' termination scheme, but it remains uncertain how many will actually participate. The Ministry estimates that approximately 65% of farmers will take part.

Additionally, since this year, animal and phosphate rights are also being traded to prevent exceeding the established manure production limits.

It is expected that the most significant declines will occur in pig farming (-16%) and poultry farming (-13%), while dairy and calf farming will decrease by 8% and 11%, respectively. Sector expert Jelmer Schreurs predicts that the largest reductions will take place in 2025 and 2026.

Although the decline will ultimately have a negative impact on the Dutch economy, its overall effect remains relatively limited: only 8% of the agricultural sector and 0.15% of the total economy.

The impact will be most felt among other agricultural businesses, compound feed companies, the energy sector, machinery manufacturers, and veterinarians, all of whom will face reduced demand and income. The food industry will also receive fewer supplies of dairy, meat, and eggs.

However, ABN Amro believes that the negative economic effects can largely be offset by new activities. If nature is given enough space by reducing nitrogen quickly and the process of getting permits goes well, new business opportunities can appear.

Also, the extra space on the energy grid and in the labour market can be used in other parts of the economy. More agricultural land, especially grassland, will also become available.

This can be used for extensive livestock farming or converted into arable land. This will reduce the damage as well as help the economy to adapt to the new situation.

Prices

News

USA

• The USDA’s latest livestock, dairy, and poultry Outlook points to a 1.3% increase in US pork production for 2026, with volume forecast at 28.4 billion pounds, compared to 27.9 billion expected this year. While this represents positive momentum for the sector, producers should prepare for tighter margins due to lower hog process and mixed export dynamics. (Source: Swineweb)
• Due in part to a sharp decline in shipments to China, April exports of US beef and pork trended lower than a year ago. (Source: USMEF)
• China’s total duties on US beef peaked in April at 147%. The rate was lowered to 32% on May 14 when the US and China agreed to a temporary de-escalation to allow for further negotiations. (Source:USMEF)
• April US beef exports totaled 100,659 tonnes (t), down 10% from a year ago, while value fell 8% to $824.5 million. For January through April, beef exports were 3% below last year’s pace at 411,027 t. Export value was down just 1% to $3.35 billion (Source: USMEF)
• US pork exports in April totaled 237,250 t, down 15% from a year ago and the lowest in 10 months. Export value fell 13% to $675.3 million. Exports to China, which are mainly pork variety meats, declined 35% from a year ago. For January through April, pork exports were 5% below last year’s record pace at 991,738 t, while value fell 4% to $2.78 billion. (Source: USMEF)
• China’s total duties on US pork and pork variety meats peaked in April at 172%. The rate was lowered to 57% on May 14. (Source: USMEF)
• April exports of US lamb muscle cuts totaled 257 t, up 49% from a year ago, while value increased 15% to $1.44 million. Growth was driven by a near-doubling of shipments to Mexico, which increased 97% to 118 t. (Source: USMEF)
• New World Screwworm (NWS) Outbreak in Central America & Mexico. APHIS is partnering with other USDA agencies, the US Department of State, the Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, and affected countries to respond to the outbreak. APHIS is investing $109.8 million to combat new NWS detections in Central America and Mexico to keep the pest from spreading into North America. (Source:USDA)
• US Secretary of Agriculture launched an $8.5 million sterile NWS fly dispersal facility in South Texas. (Source:USDA)
• Tourism driving Central American demand for US beef. Through April, beef exports to Central America increased 9% from a year ago in volume 8,131 t, while value soared 30% to more than $70 million. Tourism growth in new areas like El Salvador and Guatemala have contributed to the increased demand. Also, ‘meat boutiques’ are becoming more popular across Central America. (Source: Drovers)
• Small businesses asked the Supreme Court on Tuesday 17 June, to take up the issue of whether Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff are lawful and teeing up a potential final ruling on whether the tariffs are lawful by the end of the year. (Source: Forbes)
• The USDA organized an Agribusiness Trade Mission to Peru in June. Peru and its South American trade partners offer robust logistics, distribution, processing and cold chain capabilities, creating opportunities for exporters across industry sectors. Export prospects in Peru are strong, especially in beef, pork, poultry, dairy products, etc. (Source: USDA)

Mexico

• The government of Claudia Sheinbaum and the private sector are working to raise more products such as beef, chicken and pork to the Package Against Inflation and Scarcity (PCIC), which was launched to contain inflation in different staple foods in Mexico. (Source: Forbes)

Brazil

• Brazil regulator suspends shareholder meeting on Marfrig-BRF deal. Under the plan announced in Mid-May, Marfrig, which already owns a controlling stake in BRF, would complete its takeover in a share swap deal. (Source: Reuters)

AHDB events in the Americas

Americas Food & Beverage Show (AF&B)

10 – 12 September 2025
Miami Beach Convention Center, USA
AHDB stand number – 651

The AF&B Show is one of the most important international B2B food trade events in the western hemisphere. Held in Miami, it serves as a powerful platform for companies aiming to expand across borders, especially in the North American, Latin American, and Caribbean markets.

MICA’s 64^th AGM & Conference

10 – 12 November 2025
Fort Worth, Texas, USA
This conference brings together exporters, importers, and industry leaders from across the globe for three days of networking, panel discussions and presentations.

Prices

Mexican Pork Prices

Retailer promotions

Continente/Sonae

Sonae designed a specific leaflet for weekends side by side with its regular campaign.

On the regular leaflet, the focus is on maminha (rump cap) Angus from Ireland sold as a piece at €14.99/kg or sliced at €14.99/kg, bearing in mind the latter is not Angus. Sliced Picanha from the same origin as the maminha sliced is €15.99/kg.

Highlights also include skin pack steaks such as posta (rump heart) at €4.99/250g and Beijinho steak (from the feather) at €4.49/200g.

For lamb, only frozen chops at €15.99/kg were featured.

Pingo Doce

Pingo Doce’s focus for the current month was on striploin and picanha, both at €13.98/kg at the butchery corner. Both cuts are also available from South America at €14.98/kg for the striploin and €19.98/kg for the picanha.

There is also a silverside steak from the butchery corner at €10.98/kg.

Intermarche

Maminha is also highlighted at Intermarché at €12.48/kg (non-specified origin from Europe) and Angus rump steak from South America at €16.99/kg.

Marketing activities

Our key activity at the moment is organising a trade mission to the UK with the lamb category manager from Sonae and the NIPA importer.

AHDB delivers market access through the UK Export Certification Partnership (UKECP), working closely with DEFRA, and is dedicated to securing market access for UK meat and livestock producers. The group collaborates with government departments including DEFRA, agricultural attachés, DBT, APHA, FSA, and various key stakeholders to work on agreed priorities, including:

• Completing import risk assessment questionnaires
• Planning and executing inward inspection visits
• Organising outward missions for meetings with importing country authorities
• Drafting Export Health Certificates (EHCs) and supporting documents

BSE risk status upgrade

On 4 June, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) officially upgraded the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) risk status of England and Wales, and Scotland – treated as two zones – from Controlled Risk (CR) to Negligible Risk (NR).

Following publication of our updated NR status by WOAH, domestic legislation automatically recognised England, Wales, and Scotland as having NR status.

Formal recognition from other countries depends on their individual legislative processes. For exports to the EU – our largest trading partner – recognition of NR status requires an amendment to Commission Decision 2007/453/EC. This is expected to take approximately six months. Until recognition is formalised, existing controls for trade with the EU and Northern Ireland remain in place.

This is also an opportunity for industry to actively engage with EU counterparts and encourage timely recognition of the UK’s updated status.

Non-EU countries have different procedures: some accept WOAH’s NR status directly, while others have their own recognition process.

Our newly gained status supports ongoing efforts to grow our export markets by creating opportunities to engage with trading partners, expand or review existing market access, and initiate new discussions to open additional markets.

Read the official UK Government press release

UK-EU trade relations reset with new SPS agreement

On 19 May, the UK and EU announced a landmark reset in trade relations, unveiling a new Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement designed to reduce non-tariff barriers and revitalise agri-food trade. The deal reaffirms the EU’s role as one of the UK’s most valuable trading partners.

This SPS agreement represents a significant opportunity to improve market access and address post-Brexit trade challenges.

Since Brexit, new regulatory hurdles – such as veterinary checks, Export Health Certificates, and excessive paperwork – have driven up costs and complexity for UK meat exporters. These challenges have disrupted supply chains, eroded competitiveness and stifled growth.

Enhancing market access will strengthen the UK’s food supply chain, boost our exporters and reaffirm our role as a trusted trading partner with the EU.

“We’ll be watching closely as the details unfold.”

For further insight, read our article on the UK–EU trade summit and its implications for agri-food exports which highlights some of the potential benefits of the SPS agreement and the importance of the EU market for UK red meat and dairy exports.

‘Not for EU’ labelling requirements

From Tuesday 1 July, Phase 3 of the ‘Not for EU’ labelling requirements comes into effect. If you’re moving goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland under the Retail Movement Scheme, any goods covered by Phases 1, 2, or 3 must be individually labelled 'Not for EU'.

Goods without correct labelling may be rejected at the border. Where possible, only unlabelled goods will be turned away, but costs of return will fall to the sender.

Full guidance is available at GOV.UK – Labelling requirements for GB–NI retail movement

New product innovation seen in China.

Holly Chen AHDB’s representative in China reports: “I’ve seen these cooked pork products in a supermarket in north China which I found interesting, particularly the snort.

“The way they cut off the snorts from the head and sell them RMB20 higher per kg is really clever.”

Singapore B2B and networking lunch

• Three UK exporting companies met with market representatives in Singapore for a B2B session in May
• These included importers, distributors, retailers and private food service
• This was followed by a networking lunch where DBT and media within Singapore were present
• AHDB International Trade Development Director Jonathan Eckley reinforced the value of the Singapore market to the UK and encouraged continued fruitful trade conversations and relations

Hofex

• Three-day show in May, where we were joined by six UK exporters
• A steady show with some positive conversations around trade

Inward mission 2025

• 28 international buyers from the Americas, Middle East and SE Asia welcomed for a visit showcasing the UK red meat industry
• Visits included butcher shops, retailers, processor site visits and farm tours
• The four-day itinerary culminated with a B2B session and dinner in Butchers Hall London
• This event signified the value of showcasing the UK’s high-level production and processing standards to our international customers
• As well as the value of in-person meeting it continues to grow our reputation as an exporter across international markets

Vietnamese pork mission

AHDB is looking to run a pork mission to Vietnam from 23–25 September 2025, in partnership with the Department for Business and Trade (DBT).

This mission offers a valuable opportunity to strengthen trade relationships, engage with key stakeholders and explore one of South East Asia’s most dynamic and fast-growing markets for UK pork exports, and follows up from our previous trade mission in 2022.

Why join?

1. Market access: Vietnam is projected to be worth £12 million to the UK pork sector over the next five years.
2. High-level engagement: Participate in face-to-face meetings with Vietnamese government representatives in Hanoi, showing commitment from UK pork sector to the Vietnamese market
3. On-the-ground insights: Gain first-hand understanding of the market through a guided visit to key retail and distribution locations.
4. Networking opportunities: B2B meetings in Hanoi and in HCMC.

Building on past success

This mission builds on the strong foundations laid during our previous mission to Vietnam, which helped establish valuable connections and market insights.

We are also planning to attend Food & Hotel Vietnam (FHV) 2026, taking place 25–27 March 2026 in Ho Chi Minh City.

Outline itinerary (subject to change):

1. 22 and 23 September – Hanoi
   • Arrival in Hanoi
   • B2B meetings
   • Face-to-face meetings with Vietnamese ministries
2. 24 September – Ho Chi Minh City
   • Seminar with market insights with UK government and industry representation
   • B2B meetings
3. 25 September – Ho Chi Minh City
   • Market visits across key retail and distribution locations
   • Possible meetings with port authority and customs
4. 26 September – departure/own meetings

Final costs will be confirmed shortly for levy and non-levy paying organisations.  

If you are interested in joining or would like to discuss further, please contact Susan Stewart.