Explaining the devolved nations' carbon budgets

At the end of February 2025, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) published the UK’s seventh carbon budget, which we unpicked in detail. Since then, the CCC has also advised the devolved nations’ governments on how to proceed with their carbon budgets.

What are the common themes across the CCC’s carbon budgets?

Though operating under differing climate change legislation and carbon budgets, the narrative of the CCC carbon budget reports published this year (2025) have common themes and overlapping advice in line with the CCC’s Balanced Pathway.

There are five key routes to deliver carbon budgets:

1. Using electric technologies, including low-carbon supply of electricity and the uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
2. Reducing demand for high-carbon goods and services by increasing efficiency (e.g. improving housing insulation), making low-carbon choices (e.g. using public transport) and reducing meat and dairy consumption.
3. Low-carbon farming, including feed additives and manure management, low-carbon fuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS).
4. Nature – the sequestration of carbon through woodland creation, peatland restoration, agroforestry, and hedgerows.
5. Engineered removals – removing carbon through direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

So far most of the progress towards net zero has come from the electrification of industry; the phasing out of coal and ramping-up of renewable energy.

During the next ten years the electrification of technologies and the reduction in demand for high-carbon activities will play a central role moving towards net zero, with significant contributions from low-carbon farming, low-carbon fuels and CCS. Thereafter, nature and engineered removals will play a more prominent role in achieving net zero by 2050.

The Balanced Pathway vision includes a reduction in the consumption of meat and dairy meaning less demand for livestock-derived products.

Livestock numbers will be reduced which in-turn, it is envisaged, will free up land for woodland creation and peatland restoration, increasing the carbon land sink.

What is the latest CCC’s advice for the devolved nations’ carbon budgets?

Wales, CB4 2031-2035

• Agricultural emissions fall by 30% by 2033 from 2022 levels
• 19% reduction in cattle and sheep numbers by 2033 compared to 2022
• 16% reduction in meat (21% red meat) and 17% reduction in dairy consumption by 2033 compared to 2019
• An increase in crop yield is mentioned with further detail absent
• Agroforestry to rise annually by 760 ha and the extent of hedgerows to increase by an unspecified amount

Scotland, CB1-4 2026-2045

• Agricultural emissions fall by 30% by 2035 from 2022 levels
• 26% reduction in cattle and sheep numbers by 2035 compared to 2023
• 30% reduction in consumption of meat and 20% reduction in consumption in dairy by 2045 compared to 2019
• 13% increase in average crop yield by 2045 compared to 2022
• Agroforestry transition to annually increase by 2,600 ha and for the extent of hedgerows to increase by 19% by 2045

Northern Ireland, CB4 2038-2042

• Agricultural emissions fall by 42% by 2040 compared to 2022
• 31% reduction in cattle and sheep numbers by 2040 compared to 2022
• 25% reduction in meat consumption and 20% reduction in dairy consumption by 2040 compared to 2019
• An increase in crop yield is mentioned but no further specification
• Agroforestry to expand by just over 500 ha per year and hedgerows to increase by an unspecified amount