UK wholesale prices

Updated 25 October 2024

Indicative average prices for butter, skimmed milk powder (SMP) and mild Cheddar cheese on UK wholesale markets. Bulk cream prices are weighted average prices on agreed trades within the reporting period. Product specifications are available to download at the bottom of the page.

Fats come off the boil as cheese rolls on

Weeks 39-42 (23 Sep until 20 October 2024)

After last month’s record-breaking prices, the heat came out of the cream and butter markets to some extent.  Demand has fallen off a little and with the milk taps switching back on buyers seem unwilling to commit to buy at such elevated prices. Many report feeling uncertainty in market direction which is holding big purchases back.  However, supplies are still said to be tight and there are still short term needs to be covered.  Cheese on the other hand remains more buoyant, with little difference of opinion on where the prices ought to be.  The SMP powder market’s resurgence was fairly short-lived and has seen some drift again this month. 

The bulk cream market remains tight in supply terms but not a great deal being traded. Whilst buyers are not necessarily living “hand-to-mouth” they are not trading much forwards, with an eye on better Autumn milk flows easing supply worries.    Prices have eased to an average of £3.10/kg, a decrease of £0.05/kg or 4% since last month.  It must be remembered that this is still an astonishingly high price for cream. Prices started the period at around £3.20/kg but fell through the month as low as £2.96 for some, before seeing some resurgence in the last week of trading.  High retail demand on the continent is said to be driving this.    

Off the back of a high cream price, butter supplies continue to run very tight with decreasing production as many are electing to sell the cream rather than go to the expense of churning butter. Not much British product is said to be available for any short-term coverage.  Despite that, average butter prices have softened by £230/t to an average of £6,500 driven by futures and anticipation of more milk in the system.  There was a wide variance in prices reported through the month.  As with cream, butter prices saw the range in prices come down through the month, with a small pick-up in the last week.

The SMP market was said to be quiet with an unwillingness for buyers to come to the market currently, edging prices back. Prices fell in response to international markets falling and hopes of increased milk availability. There were hints, however, that buyers may not be covered for Q1 and will need to come back to the market.  Demand was reported to be soft, driven by some of the manufacturers.   There were a range of quotes from £1980/t to £2250/t over the month.  On average though prices nudged down over the period to around £2,090/t, a drop-off of £60/t.   

Mild Cheddar prices continued to push on, up another £150/t which is still not up to the 2022 peak when mild cheddar hit £4,880/t. Quotes this month were much more aligned, averaging at £4300/t.  There were some reports of a lack of trade with differing expectations of price between buyers and sellers.  Some producers sold more as curd this month, putting constraints on supplies.    

The published prices will not necessarily match the overall actual price achieved by a milk processor as this will depend, amongst other things, on the proportion of product that is sold on the spot market and the proportion sold under longer term contracts and at what price this is done. The “average” prices should be used to track trends while the commentary will contain prices seen through the month.

Note there has been a change in the methodology for determining the bulk cream price from January 2021.

Information on prices and market conditions is gathered through a monthly phone survey of dairy product sellers, traders and buyers. Panel discussions cover ex-store prices on spot trades agreed within the reporting period and delivered within a maximum of 2 weeks for bulk cream and 6 weeks for butter, SMP or cheese. 

For butter, skimmed milk powder (SMP) and mild Cheddar, prices are indicative of values achieved for spot trades and exclude contracted prices or forward sales.

For bulk cream, a weighted average price will now be reported. This is based on submissions of an average price for agreed spot trades made within the reporting period along with total volumes traded. Data is entered by panel members via the AHDB online wholesale price portal.

Prices for bulk cream were not weighted by traded volumes prior to January 2021. 

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