AHDB early balance sheets: 2026/27

22 October 2026

For wheat, the drop in estimated wheat opening stocks outweighs the rise in production. Despite a decrease in total domestic consumption, this leads to a tighter balance sheet for wheat, with imports playing an important role in 2026/27.

For barley, the drop in availability, driven by the lowest estimated production since 2011/12, outweighs the drop in consumption. This leads to a very tight balance sheet for barley in 2026/27.

This release covers the 2026/27 AHDB Early Balance Sheet estimates of wheat and barley. These estimates are made by AHDB and can be downloaded at the bottom of this page.

These estimates provide the first look at wheat and barley supply and demand for the season. As always, caution should be taken when examining these figures at such an early stage of the season.

They should be viewed in conjunction with the official UK Cereals Supply and Demand Balance Sheets, which are produced by AHDB on behalf of Defra.

The first official 2026/27 balance sheets are due to be released on 26 November 2026.

The Scottish Government were unable to publish provisional Scottish cereal and oilseed production estimates in 2026. Defra published provisional estimates for England only.

AHDB has used the results of the Scottish June Agricultural Census and consulted with industry and the Scottish Government to produce production estimates for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. These have been combined with the provisional Defra England production figures to produce UK wheat and barley production estimates for the AHDB Early Balance Sheets.

Production for previous seasons is based on the results from the Defra Cereals and Oilseed Rape Production survey.

Total availability of wheat in 2026/27 is estimated at 16.338 Mt, down 215 Kt on the year. The decline is driven by very low opening stocks, which are only partially balanced by slightly higher production and forecast imports. 2026/27 opening stocks are estimated at 1.514 Mt, down 466 Kt on the year.

2026 UK wheat production is estimated at 12.074 Mt, up 116 Kt year on year. A small decrease in planted area is offset by a slight improvement in estimated UK average yield. While up on the year overall, regional yields varied widely, with a lack of rainfall impacting crops across the southern half of England. Output remains below the previous five-year average.

Wheat imports in 2026/27 are initially estimated at 2.750 Mt, up 135 Kt from 2025/26. Imports of high-specification milling wheat are expected to be minimal this season due to the large proportion of the UK wheat exceeding protein level requirements.

However, lower opening stocks means higher imports of feed grain will be required – levels of demand for animal feed and bioethanol, as well as the price competitiveness of different grains through the season will influence wheat import pace.

Total domestic consumption of wheat in 2026/27 is estimated to fall by 124 Kt on the year to 13.979 Mt. This is due to a drop in human and industrial (H&I) usage and similar usage in animal feed to last year.

H&I wheat usage is estimated at 6.411 Mt in 2026/27, down 153 Kt or 2% from 2025/26 levels, which was already the lowest since 2006/07.

The fall on the year is driven by a drop in demand by both the flour milling and bioethanol sectors.

Whilst Ensus re-opened for bioethanol production in April 2026, its operation is only secured until the end of October 2026, and these estimates only factor in wheat usage until then. Any future announcements will be incorporated into subsequent estimates.

Flour demand continues to be subdued, impacted by changing consumer diets, and the trend is expected to remain this season. Extraction rates were good last season, and this is expected to remain in 2026/27. Due to the strong functionality of the UK wheat harvest this year, a further increase in the proportion of home-grown wheat is anticipated in the grist throughout this season.

Brewing, malting and distilling (BMD) wheat usage is expected to be relatively stable on the year.

In 2026/27, wheat usage in animal feed is estimated at 7.249 Mt, similar to 2025/26 (+29 Kt). While GB compound feed production is expected to remain relatively stable this season, relative price and availability of feed grains will impact feed rations. Factors to consider are lower barley and oat availability, potential benefits of higher protein domestic wheat, and the price competitiveness of imported maize into different parts of GB and Northern Ireland.

The main growth area forecast is feed production for integrated poultry units (IPUs) as demand for poultry continues to be positive.

The amount of wheat fed on farm is currently forecast slightly lower than last year with tighter UK wheat stocks and a more typical weather pattern assumed. However, with forage stocks lower than desired in some regions, weather conditions in the coming months will be a key determinant of grain demand on farm.

With the drop in availability outweighing the fall in total domestic consumption, the balance of wheat supply and demand in 2026/27 is estimated to fall by 91 Kt from 2025/26 levels to 2.359 Mt.

Taking into account an operating stock requirement of 1.500 Mt, this leaves a surplus available for either export or free stock of 859 Kt.

The cost of imports as well as domestic demand trends will determine if closing stocks increase this season or remain at the low levels seen at the end of 2025/26.

In 2026/27, total availability of barley is estimated at 7.087 Mt, down 772 Kt or 10% year-on-year. This fall is driven by the smallest crop since 2011/12, which outweighs a small rise in opening stocks.

2026/27 barley opening stocks are estimated at 1.337 Mt, 58 Kt up year on year and 190 Kt higher than the previous five-year average.

With a smaller planted area for harvest 2026 and very mixed yields, UK barley production is estimated to fall by 867 Kt from 2025 levels to 5.500 Mt.

Total domestic consumption of barley in 2026/27 is estimated at 6.001 Mt, down 39 Kt from 2025/26. The fall in usage is largely driven by a decline in H&I consumption.

H&I barley usage is expected to decline by 49 Kt on the year to 1.407 Mt in 2026/27.

The current ‘cost of living crisis’ continues to impact the consumption of alcohol domestically, which is influencing demand from the BMD sectors. BMD barley demand is expected to be somewhat sluggish again this season, with further declines forecast.

The functionality of the 2026 barley crop is mixed and regional, with poor-yielding crops also missing malting specification in droughted areas. With demand lower and some stocks available, the smaller pool of 2026 crop meeting specification should be adequate, albeit with greater movement within the UK.

In 2026/27, barley usage in animal feed is estimated to be similar to last season at 4.393 Mt, with compounder use and fed on farm forecast to be stable. Feed barley is pricing competitively against other feed grains at the moment, but with the tighter balance sheet, this could shift through the season. It is projected that the amount fed on farm will remain the same due to the need to replace forage during the winter.

The balance of barley supply and demand in 2026/27 is estimated at 1.086 Mt, down 733 Kt on the year and the lowest on record. The estimated operating stock requirement is reduced by 50 Kt to 750 Kt, leaving a surplus available for either export or free stock of 336 Kt.

Download the 2026/27 AHDB Early Balance Sheets, giving estimates of UK wheat and barley supply and demand, below.