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US dairy herd set to expand
Tuesday, 13 July 2021
By Bronwyn Magee
The US dairy herd is expected to average 9.5 million head in 2021, according to the latest USDA forecast. This is an expansion of 1.1% (107,000 head) on the 2020 herd. This comes as US cow numbers have increased in recent months, climbing 16,000 head in April on the previous month. Meanwhile, slaughter levels have been relatively low, running below those seen last year.
In 2021, higher feed costs and slightly lower milk prices are anticipated to level off herd numbers in the second half of the year. Average milk per cow is expected to increase 1.2% year-on-year at 10.6 thousand litres. This is a slight downward revision from the previous forecast, driven by anticipated high summer temperatures and dry conditions. Overall, US milk production for the year is forecast at 100.7 billion litres, lifting 2.4% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to 2022, herd numbers are expected to remain stable on 2021, while average milk per cow is forecast to continue an upward trajectory, lifting 1.1% year-on-year to 10.7 thousand litres per head. As such, milk production for the year is anticipated to increase a further 1.1% to reach 101.8 billion litres.
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