If the UK leaves the EU in a ‘no-deal’ scenario, it will no longer be able to enjoy the benefits of trade agreements the EU has with other countries. In this article, we look at the progress that has been made in rolling over these deals and what it means for agri-food trade.
The UK wheat harvest is now nearing completion, if yields continue in line with current estimates we tentatively forecast production of wheat at 15.9-16.2Mt. In a “normal” year the surplus wheat would find an export home primarily in the EU. However, this year is far from “normal”.
Recently published articles have examined the potential impact issues such as tariffs/non-tariff measures (NTMs) could have on the beef and sheep industry, following on from a report compiled by The Andersons Centre. However, those were short-term estimates of the impact on prices. How the industry will react will be the biggest game changer.
Non-tariff measures are a key aspect of trade, which are often overlooked. They have a financial impact that, in some cases, can be significant. This article explores what these might look like under different Brexit scenarios
Regardless of what happens with Brexit, unless the UK stays in, farmers in England will see direct payments removed by 2028. The situation for farmers in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, (as of 11 March 2019) is unclear.
The government has released some technical notices looking at providing guidance for no deal Brexit planning. The notices can be found here and look at a wide range of topics including; farming and fishing, importing and exporting as well as the environment.
Latest data around economic factors suggest the UK’s economy is performing reasonably well at present. Most data has been fairly stable for some time. This could be down to the uncertainty around Brexit, which means significant changes could occur in the coming weeks/months.
Many of us in the industry have been scouring the Agricultural Bill for the shape of things to come in the post-Brexit world. What is clear is that direct payments will be diminishing, before disappearing completely (at least in England).
A new report published by AHDB suggests Brexit will have a considerable impact on the UK’s milling industry under a range of trade scenarios but the malting sector is in a far better position to weather the storm.