6 December 2019

Poor weather in France has continued to hinder fieldwork with French farmers still lagging behind in planting winter crops.

5 December 2019

Bearish global price trends and strengthening currency are now the predominant driving force behind UK futures markets.

5 December 2019

With it being assumed that Vivergo Fuels will remain offline for the rest of the 2019/20, what are the prospects for wheat consumption by UK flour millers (including bioethanol and starch)?

4 December 2019

Last week’s UK delivered survey contained our first prices for oilseed rape for harvest 2020. These ranged from £314.50/t to £318.50/t depending on delivery point with Erith priced at £318.50/t.

3 December 2019

While there are some supportive factors for old crop markets, caution is required for the extent to which global markets can lift.

2 December 2019

There are some global concerns regarding new-crop wheat supply but the 2019 harvest brought high production for the northern hemisphere.

29 November 2019

Oat production peaked at 1,082Kt, the highest levels since the 1970’s, which has raised questions over where this season’s surplus will end up?

28 November 2019

As rain continues to fall across the UK, progress in winter plantings remains hampered. According to the Environment Agency, England received 143% of the long term average rainfall in August-October, making 2019 the third wettest year in the last 20. Furthermore, rainfall in November has totalled 101% of the long term average so far.

27 November 2019

Oilseed rape planting intentions have seen a 23% drop in area, to 406Kha, from last year.

26 November 2019

An early recording of GB planting intentions for the 2020 harvest suggests a sharp fall in winter crops, largely because of the extremely wet weather throughout the autumn planting window.

25 November 2019

Despite short-term worries for some EU crops, global wheat supplies are ample for 2019/20 and area forecast to increase 1% globally in 2020/21.

22 November 2019

The latest International Grains Council (IGC) global supply and demand estimates point toward a continuation of the overall current bearish global grain market sentiment.

21 November 2019

With the adverse conditions directly impacting winter plantings across the UK, thoughts turn to what will be in the ground come harvest 2020.

20 November 2019

With the UK domestic market reacting to ongoing adverse weather preventing winter crop planting, it’s important to consider winter planting in major wheat producing nations. This will have a significant impact on global markets.

19 November 2019

With new crop futures now somewhat prevented from gaining further relative to European origins, there are two main risks for new crop pricing for the foreseeable.

18 November 2019

Although old-crop UK feed wheat futures (May-20) gained just £0.75/t on the week, to close Friday at £152.00/t physical prices rose more.

15 November 2019

From a price point, the relationship between old crop and new crop prices has stretched, however, the same can’t be said globally.

14 November 2019

The UK’s trade position on global markets can change each season. In years of lower wheat production, the UK’s stance will turn to a net importer.

13 November 2019

The EU rapeseed deficit has continued to draw in large levels of the crop. Cumulative imports so far in 2019/20 (up to 10 Nov) have reached 2.68Mt, according to the EU commission.

12 November 2019

HMRC export data, released yesterday, states 341.0Kt of barley was exported from the UK in the month of September alone.

11 November 2019

Global markets were awaiting the USDA world agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) report last week, released on Friday.

8 November 2019

This afternoon (17.00) the USDA will release its latest supply and demand estimates. The report will be watched closely for its assessment of US and southern hemisphere crops. Significant weather challenges have led to delays for northern hemisphere harvesting (and new crop planting) and driven concerns over conditions of South American crops.

7 November 2019

With questions regarding the wheat supply for the UK next year, to what extent could a potential deficit support prices?

6 November 2019

The EU is forecast to import 6.0Mt of rapeseed this season. So far this season, EU imports of rapeseed to 03 November have totalled 2.68Mt.

5 November 2019

Further mixed messages for global grain markets were released in yesterday’s USDA crop progress report, with additional supportive factors for the current crop year, but a somewhat bearish tone for new crop wheat.

4 November 2019

Old-crop wheat markets drifted over the week for both US and UK. The downgrade of Australian production could be dropped further as harvest commences and yields are confirmed.

1 November 2019

Looking into next year, global wheat futures for harvest 2020 will help to provide insight into the potential route wheat prices may take over the next twelve months.

31 October 2019

Wet weather has dominated much of the UK since mid-September, causing delays to drilling of winter cereal crops.

30 October 2019

Since last Monday (21 October) Paris rapeseed futures (May-20) have generally followed an upward trend, gaining €5.25/t, to close yesterday at €379.75/t. The recent rise has been driven by support in other vegetable oil markets.

29 October 2019

Delayed and disrupted winter wheat planting has heightened concerns for the 2020/21 harvest and moved UK feed wheat futures higher, up £6.05/t over the last week.

28 October 2019

Downward revisions to Argentina and Australia production in 2019/20 have led to a tightening of global supply and demand.

25 October 2019

In yesterday’s market commentary we briefly touched upon the spread between May-19 and Nov-20 UK feed wheat futures. At yesterday’s close the spread had widened further to £10.00/t, comfortably the largest gap between November and May contracts for this time of year over the past 10 years.

24 October 2019

Dryness during planting in Brazil and Argentina has caused some concern in recent weeks. While there is still time to get crops in the ground without yields being impacted, further delays could cause knock-on impacts into other crops.

23 October 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) increased £0.30/t from Monday to close yesterday at £135.40/t. At 11.30am Nov-19 futures were up £1.60/t at £137.00/t.

22 October 2019

Oilseed rape prices have come under increasing pressure throughout October. Yet with the fundamentals for a tight supply and demand outlook, why have domestic prices (delivered Erith) fallen by £17.50/t during October

21 October 2019

Weather has continued to dominate global markets with wet and cold weather in the northern hemisphere and predominantly dry weather in the southern hemisphere.

18 October 2019

A forecast of Australian wheat production from National Australia Bank limited has pegged output at 15.5Mt, the latest forecast is 4.5Mt below the bank’s forecast from last month, and 2.5Mt below the latest USDA estimate.

17 October 2019

Defra's release of their 2019 provisional crop estimates lead to the publish of the early balance sheet on Monday.

16 October 2019

The latest USDA crop progress report was released yesterday. US maize harvest progress was slower than pre-report market polls anticipated.

15 October 2019

As October is fast drawing to an end, and what is a very uncertain November fast approaching, ex-farm sales of wheat and barley for next month have remained minimal.

14 October 2019

Further cuts to Australian wheat production, and increasingly poor outlooks for Southern Hemisphere production have been reducing the size of the forecast global surplus.

11 October 2019

The cuts to US maize production in yesterday’s WASDE release were not as great as average trade expectations.

10 October 2019

Exports this season so far have seen elevated levels to ship prior to 31 October. Corn return Feed wheat volumes for July-October delivery have reached record levels of 1.07Mt (to 03 October).

10 October 2019

Defra’s provisional production estimates for winter and spring barley at 8.180Mt were higher than market expectations.

9 October 2019

EU imports of rapeseed have hit record levels this season as the continent tries to meet its import requirements.

8 October 2019

Wheat production at 16.283Mt has come as little surprise given the yields recorded and crop prospects. Yet this does cement the export requirement and ongoing need for UK markets to be globally competitive for the foreseeable future.

7 October 2019

While UK, European and Black Sea wheat supply is ample, outlooks for Southern Hemisphere production have been reducing the size of the forecast global surplus.

4 October 2019

Although the UK is facing a greater supply, domestic demand so far in 2019/20 has reduced

3 October 2019

On Tuesday we published the second provisional results of the Cereal Quality Survey. The results are now beginning to reflect some of the challenges facing the industry with this year’s wheat crop.

2 October 2019

There has been some recent support in global grain markets based on weather and also a bullish stocks report released by the USDA on Monday.

1 October 2019

The underlying oilseed complex has been showing signs of support, allowing further upward potential for rapeseed markets.

30 September 2019

UK and European wheat supply is plentiful which will likely keep prices pressured. However, rainfall affecting the US spring wheat harvest and dryness in Australia and Argentina could counter this.

27 September 2019

DEFRA released the final June Survey figures yesterday covering English agricultural plantings for 2019. These figures correlate to AHDB’s Planting and Variety survey areas, released in early July.

26 September 2019

This season UK barley production looks on track to hit c.7.3Mt, the highest level of production since 2015/16.

25 September 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) eased slightly to close at £135.75/t, a fall of £0.50/t from yesterday.

24 September 2019

Physical delivered oilseed rape prices for November delivery into Erith have been on an upward trend from March to August.

23 September 2019

Delays to the spring wheat harvest in the US and Canada lent support to global wheat futures last week.

20 September 2019

UK 2018/19 ending stocks of wheat are up 11% from last season at 1,911Kt, the highest since 2015/16, according to the AHDB/Defra end-season balance sheet.

19 September 2019

Removal of tariffs would expose the UK cereal market to global prices, but would the domestic market feel an impact?

18 September 2019

We have seen domestic wheat prices trade within an £0.85/t channel over the last eight days. However, shifts in financial markets and politics have pushed the Nov-19 wheat price higher. We look at why.

17 September 2019

Saudi attack causes price spikes and ex-farm barley sales crash in November.

16 September 2019

Australian wheat production figures were cut 2MT to a 19.1MMT crop as drought conditions persist.

13 September 2019

This year the UK will be a net importer of rapeseed

12 September 2019

The UK will need to price competitively against the likes of both the Black Sea region and France, key competitors to UK trade into non-EU markets.

11 September 2019

Oilseed rape prices, both EU futures and UK physical have seen some significant growth on the back of supply woes over the past couple of months.

10 September 2019

Prospects for Australian wheat production deteriorate

9 September 2019

UK wheat futures gained last week, against the pressure of a strengthening pound, gaining 0.6% against the euro and over 1% against the dollar.

6 September 2019

Brexit, Forex and Supply, where are UK futures?

5 September 2019

The UK wheat harvest is now nearing completion, if yields continue in line with current estimates we tentatively forecast production of wheat at 15.9-16.2Mt. In a “normal” year the surplus wheat would find an export home primarily in the EU. However, this year is far from “normal”.

4 September 2019

The only Brexit certainty is uncertainty

3 September 2019

After a period of strengthening, sterling has taken a downwards turn and is once again on a weakening streak.

2 September 2019

Global wheat prices have continued to fall in an increasingly well-supplied market.

30 August 2019

The good weather over the past week has allowed for swift progress to be made with the GB wheat harvest.

29 August 2019

The potential for a 7.3Mt+ crop of barley is looming for the 2019/20 season with harvest almost complete.

28 August 2019

With just 65 days until the UK leaves the European Union, the direction of sterling continues to drive the direction of UK grain and oilseed futures.

26 August 2019

Global grain markets continue to have a bearish tone, in what remains a well-supplied outlook for 2019/20.

23 August 2019

The latest AHDB harvest report highlights that the winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest are all but complete, at 98% and 95% respectively.

22 August 2019

Hard Brexit analysis of potential impacts facing UK markets in 2019/20.

21 August 2019

Over the past few months the direction of US corn prices has been a significant focus for EU grain markets.

19 August 2019

The much awaited USDA WASDE and revisions to the maize planted area took markets by surprise.

19 August 2019

Tariffs? Tariff rate quotas? Allocations? We increasingly hear these terms as we approach 31 October Brexit deadline.

16 August 2019

Although the wheat harvest has been delayed by rain, by 13 August approximately 27% was complete

15 August 2019

In the week ending 08 August 2019, spot ex-farm purchases hit 63Kt, the first time barley purchases have reached that amount on records going back to July 2000. Moreover, cumulative, spot purchases of feed barley have accelerated to 235Kt, a figure not reached until April last season.

14 August 2019

Rapeseed prices could be set for support following the decision of the European Union to impose import duties on Indonesian biodiesel. The increase in duty on the fuel could result in a switch in demand to biodiesel produced using other vegetable oils.

13 August 2019

Yesterday’s WASDE release saw an upward revision to US maize estimates in stark contrast to industry estimates which expected a lower value from July’s release.

12 August 2019

Global grain markets lacked clear direction last week in anticipation of today’s WASDE and much awaited update to the US planted area.

9 August 2019

Monday could signal the end of the recent spate of maize led volatility, or could kick it into a whole other gear. Over the last three and a bit month’s global grain volatility has been heavily dictated by uncertainty over the US maize production number.

8 August 2019

Although the oilseed rape outlook is for a large deficit during 2019/20, prices have been unable to continually climb due to a global oversupply of soyabeans.

7 August 2019

Yesterday the French farm ministry upped its estimate of soft wheat production by a further 1.2Mt from its July estimate. The ministry now forecast French production to reach 38.2Mt, up 12% year-on-year, the largest French soft wheat crop since 2015 (EU commission – 40.9Mt).

6 August 2019

European wheat markets moved down yesterday. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) closed at £144.80/t, down £1.15/t since Friday.

5 August 2019

US grain markets lost significant ground last week on the back of an improving weather outlook, significant strengthening of the US dollar and a worsening of the trade relationship between the US and China.

2 August 2019

Up to 30th July, 31% of the oilseed rape crop had been harvested.

1 August 2019

The global wheat market continues to look well supplied, although there are still areas that could cap future losses.

31 July 2019

UK feed wheat continued to track upwards yesterday although only marginally. From Monday’s close UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) increased a further £0.25/t to close yesterday at £148.75/t. Paris milling wheat (Dec-19) also climbed yesterday, closing at €181.50/t, a rise of €1.00/t.

30 July 2019

The value of sterling has fallen to its weakest point against the dollar for more than two years ahead of a week of key economic data. Weakness in the value of sterling will act to support the value of UK agricultural products.

29 July 2019

Despite moving lower Friday-Friday, global grain markets were largely supported last week with cuts to global production grain supply and demand estimates.

26 July 2019

European wheat markets have seen little movement this week. UK feed wheat futures (Dec-19) have traded within a £0.75 range from £146.25/t to £147.00/t since Monday. Paris milling wheat markets have traded between €179.25/t and €180.75/t at close yesterday. US grain markets have also been following a similar sideways trend. Chicago maize (Dec-19) traded within a $1.87 band and Chicago wheat (Dec-19) traded within $3.30 from Monday to yesterdays close. With cereal harvest underway in the northern hemisphere, yield and quality reports will be monitored closely to readjust any forecast currently in place.

25 July 2019

Following what has been an unfavourable growing season for oilseed rape, both in the EU and across Europe, imports are going to be essential.

24 July 2019

Global grain markets remained relatively flat yesterday with no real change in fundamentals affecting the markets.

23 July 2019

As we move through July and into August progress of global wheat harvests becomes increasingly important to price direction.

22 July 2019

US benchmark grain futures (wheat and maize) fell last week, setting a bearish tone to markets. Managed money funds in Chicago wheat futures reduced their long positions, selling contracts.

19 July 2019

UK feed wheat futures continued their recent decline yesterday. Earlier in the week we highlighted that the 20-day moving average had dropped below the 50-day moving average. The trend has continued over the course of the week and at yesterday’s close the 20-day average was sitting just £0.66/t above the 100-day average.

18 July 2019

European grain markets have dropped back down again this morning, after closing yesterday slightly higher.

17 July 2019

Yesterday, global grain continued to fall back from their recent rally. Nov-19 feed wheat lost £0.50/t to close at £146.75/t.

16 July 2019

In a return to the trend of a falling grain market, Nov-19 feed wheat futures closed lower yesterday at £147.25/t and have continued to fall this morning trading at £146.75/t at midday.

15 July 2019

The US is forecast to be drier and hotter than normal leading to a more bullish, US centric, feel to markets in the short-term.

12 July 2019

UK oat production looks set to be the highest since 1973.

11 July 2019

The AHDB Crop Tour moved east yesterday, visiting Simon Brock at Swanton Morley Farms near Dereham, Norfolk.

10 July 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) fell further below the long term moving average yesterday. New-crop futures have fallen £4.20/t over the past two days, closing at £144.50/t

8 July 2019

Large global supplies and forecasts of good harvests are driving a marginally bearish feeling to the market at the moment. However, volatility from the maize market will drive daily movements.

1 July 2019

Chicago grain futures continued to fall week-on-week (21 June to 28 June). Maize dropped $8.66/t, on the back of the USDA acreage report released on Friday.

31 May 2019

This morning Defra have released key updates to the June Survey area data. This is after a detailed investigation into both the June Survey and BPS dataset following the variance in English crop area reported between the two surveys in early February.

30 April 2019

Following the decision by Defra to release two data sets for the English cropping areas, there have been questions regarding what the ‘true’ area is.

6 February 2019

Today has seen Defra release the latest update to the Basic Payment Scheme planted area dataset that was first released a year ago. The dataset looks specifically at land use including grassland but we’re concentrating on the main crop areas in England only.