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9 April 2020

As we move through unprecedented times, we often have to look outside the box to find the drivers of markets. Over the past fortnight, wheat prices have been increasingly driven by global macroeconomics. However, as the macroeconomics are increasingly factored in, markets for products that are substitutable for wheat also become key to market direction.

3 April 2020

As crop calendars reach crucial stages for many countries, it is important to examine the potential effect coronavirus related lockdowns could have.

2 April 2020

In times of uncertainty, markets can act in a very volatile and erratic manner to news stories. This is especially true when we consider the impact of political intervention in grain markets. Over the past fortnight, we have heard a number of stories, particularly from the Black Sea, surrounding export restrictions for wheat in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan.

1 April 2020

With such a great importance placed on imports of soyameal for the UK livestock supply chain, there is a need for greater focus on the global logistics and trade flows.

26 March 2020

The value of the pound has continued to find a degree of support and recover slightly against the dollar, moving to £1 = $1.1885 yesterday and breaking above £1 = $1.1928 this morning.

19 March 2020

As vegetable oils compete for their market share, they have been pressured in line with crude oil going into the New Year. This has had a knock-on effect on domestic rapeseed prices, as last weeks delivered rapeseed price (Erith, May-20) reduced by £17.00, to be quoted at £318.50/t.

12 March 2020

Last week the latest GB animal feed production and usage stats (including integrated poultry units) were released. This showed the total usage season-to-date (Jul-Jan) has dropped 1.5% compared to the same period in 2018/19.

12 March 2020

Sterling has fallen to its lowest level since November 2019, following an emergency cut to UK interest rates. The cut by 50 basis points has been carried out by the Bank of England with the hope of reviving the UK economy amid Covid-19 fears.

12 March 2020

In the first budget since the 2019 general election, the agricultural sector retained red diesel subsidies, for another year at least, despite them being scrapped for most sectors.

10 March 2020

Although the UK OSR deficit is forecast to grow, it is hard to avoid the bearish short term and longer term fundamentals for the overall oilseed market.

5 March 2020

The adverse weather since the start of autumn has provided an array of challenges going in the 2020/21MY for the UK’s grain markets.

27 February 2020

As we creep ever closer to harvest 2020, we are entering some relatively unprecedented territory. Whilst for some small crops and challenging weather will lead to memories of 2012, 2009 and beyond, there are challenges greater than the weather on the horizon.

26 February 2020

Current proposals are for a tiered system targeted at different scales

20 February 2020

The latest Defra basics payments data was released this morning showing the total area of land eligible for direct payments in the 2019/20 cropping year for England. The data highlights some important and significant changes in crop areas relative to the Defra June Survey. Both surveys have their own statistical challenges, some of which were highlighted in David’s Grain Market Daily on Tuesday.

13 February 2020

Now that we have passed the halfway point for this current marketing year, it is worth taking a look at how exports have fared this season so far, and theoretically examining what the degree of carryover could be.

6 February 2020

A lot of attention has been placed on the impact of coronavirus on markets in the past fortnight, and while this is very relevant at the moment, the impact can belie the long-term direction of markets

3 February 2020

In the midst of a global commodity downturn, US managed money speculative funds have increased the number of long contracts.

30 January 2020

As we draw towards the end of the winter drilling window, it’s becoming more apparent that arable farmers may have to plant alternatives to winter wheat to produce grain for the 2020/21 marketing year.

23 January 2020

Should the traded volume continue to decline, then could the futures of UK futures be at risk?

16 January 2020

A lack of export volumes and current lack of competitiveness is building up risks for both 2019/20 and 2020/21 domestic prices.

9 January 2020

As we hit January we are constantly reminded about the lengths people claim they will go to in order to become a “new me” These range from going to the gym more, attempting dry January and we can hardly ignore Veganuary.

12 December 2019

The consistent wet weather has caused major delays to drilling for 2020 harvest. Farmers are likely to be weighing up alternative spring options at present, of which oats could be one.

5 December 2019

Bearish global price trends and strengthening currency are now the predominant driving force behind UK futures markets.

5 December 2019

With it being assumed that Vivergo Fuels will remain offline for the rest of the 2019/20, what are the prospects for wheat consumption by UK flour millers (including bioethanol and starch)?

28 November 2019

As rain continues to fall across the UK, progress in winter plantings remains hampered. According to the Environment Agency, England received 143% of the long term average rainfall in August-October, making 2019 the third wettest year in the last 20. Furthermore, rainfall in November has totalled 101% of the long term average so far.

26 November 2019

An early recording of GB planting intentions for the 2020 harvest suggests a sharp fall in winter crops, largely because of the extremely wet weather throughout the autumn planting window.

21 November 2019

With the adverse conditions directly impacting winter plantings across the UK, thoughts turn to what will be in the ground come harvest 2020.

14 November 2019

The UK’s trade position on global markets can change each season. In years of lower wheat production, the UK’s stance will turn to a net importer.

7 November 2019

With questions regarding the wheat supply for the UK next year, to what extent could a potential deficit support prices?

31 October 2019

Wet weather has dominated much of the UK since mid-September, causing delays to drilling of winter cereal crops.

24 October 2019

Dryness during planting in Brazil and Argentina has caused some concern in recent weeks. While there is still time to get crops in the ground without yields being impacted, further delays could cause knock-on impacts into other crops.

17 October 2019

Defra's release of their 2019 provisional crop estimates lead to the publish of the early balance sheet on Monday.

10 October 2019

Exports this season so far have seen elevated levels to ship prior to 31 October. Corn return Feed wheat volumes for July-October delivery have reached record levels of 1.07Mt (to 03 October).

3 October 2019

On Tuesday we published the second provisional results of the Cereal Quality Survey. The results are now beginning to reflect some of the challenges facing the industry with this year’s wheat crop.

26 September 2019

This season UK barley production looks on track to hit c.7.3Mt, the highest level of production since 2015/16.

19 September 2019

Removal of tariffs would expose the UK cereal market to global prices, but would the domestic market feel an impact?

12 September 2019

The UK will need to price competitively against the likes of both the Black Sea region and France, key competitors to UK trade into non-EU markets.

5 September 2019

The UK wheat harvest is now nearing completion, if yields continue in line with current estimates we tentatively forecast production of wheat at 15.9-16.2Mt. In a “normal” year the surplus wheat would find an export home primarily in the EU. However, this year is far from “normal”.

29 August 2019

The potential for a 7.3Mt+ crop of barley is looming for the 2019/20 season with harvest almost complete.

22 August 2019

Hard Brexit analysis of potential impacts facing UK markets in 2019/20.

19 August 2019

Tariffs? Tariff rate quotas? Allocations? We increasingly hear these terms as we approach 31 October Brexit deadline.

15 August 2019

In the week ending 08 August 2019, spot ex-farm purchases hit 63Kt, the first time barley purchases have reached that amount on records going back to July 2000. Moreover, cumulative, spot purchases of feed barley have accelerated to 235Kt, a figure not reached until April last season.

8 August 2019

Although the oilseed rape outlook is for a large deficit during 2019/20, prices have been unable to continually climb due to a global oversupply of soyabeans.

1 August 2019

The global wheat market continues to look well supplied, although there are still areas that could cap future losses.

25 July 2019

Following what has been an unfavourable growing season for oilseed rape, both in the EU and across Europe, imports are going to be essential.

12 July 2019

UK oat production looks set to be the highest since 1973.

31 May 2019

This morning Defra have released key updates to the June Survey area data. This is after a detailed investigation into both the June Survey and BPS dataset following the variance in English crop area reported between the two surveys in early February.

30 April 2019

Following the decision by Defra to release two data sets for the English cropping areas, there have been questions regarding what the ‘true’ area is.