6 December 2019

Poor weather in France has continued to hinder fieldwork with French farmers still lagging behind in planting winter crops.

4 December 2019

Last week’s UK delivered survey contained our first prices for oilseed rape for harvest 2020. These ranged from £314.50/t to £318.50/t depending on delivery point with Erith priced at £318.50/t.

3 December 2019

While there are some supportive factors for old crop markets, caution is required for the extent to which global markets can lift.

29 November 2019

Oat production peaked at 1,082Kt, the highest levels since the 1970’s, which has raised questions over where this season’s surplus will end up?

28 November 2019

As rain continues to fall across the UK, progress in winter plantings remains hampered. According to the Environment Agency, England received 143% of the long term average rainfall in August-October, making 2019 the third wettest year in the last 20. Furthermore, rainfall in November has totalled 101% of the long term average so far.

27 November 2019

Oilseed rape planting intentions have seen a 23% drop in area, to 406Kha, from last year.

26 November 2019

An early recording of GB planting intentions for the 2020 harvest suggests a sharp fall in winter crops, largely because of the extremely wet weather throughout the autumn planting window.

22 November 2019

The latest International Grains Council (IGC) global supply and demand estimates point toward a continuation of the overall current bearish global grain market sentiment.

20 November 2019

With the UK domestic market reacting to ongoing adverse weather preventing winter crop planting, it’s important to consider winter planting in major wheat producing nations. This will have a significant impact on global markets.

19 November 2019

With new crop futures now somewhat prevented from gaining further relative to European origins, there are two main risks for new crop pricing for the foreseeable.

15 November 2019

From a price point, the relationship between old crop and new crop prices has stretched, however, the same can’t be said globally.

13 November 2019

The EU rapeseed deficit has continued to draw in large levels of the crop. Cumulative imports so far in 2019/20 (up to 10 Nov) have reached 2.68Mt, according to the EU commission.

12 November 2019

HMRC export data, released yesterday, states 341.0Kt of barley was exported from the UK in the month of September alone.

8 November 2019

This afternoon (17.00) the USDA will release its latest supply and demand estimates. The report will be watched closely for its assessment of US and southern hemisphere crops. Significant weather challenges have led to delays for northern hemisphere harvesting (and new crop planting) and driven concerns over conditions of South American crops.

6 November 2019

The EU is forecast to import 6.0Mt of rapeseed this season. So far this season, EU imports of rapeseed to 03 November have totalled 2.68Mt.

5 November 2019

Further mixed messages for global grain markets were released in yesterday’s USDA crop progress report, with additional supportive factors for the current crop year, but a somewhat bearish tone for new crop wheat.

1 November 2019

Looking into next year, global wheat futures for harvest 2020 will help to provide insight into the potential route wheat prices may take over the next twelve months.

30 October 2019

Since last Monday (21 October) Paris rapeseed futures (May-20) have generally followed an upward trend, gaining €5.25/t, to close yesterday at €379.75/t. The recent rise has been driven by support in other vegetable oil markets.

29 October 2019

Delayed and disrupted winter wheat planting has heightened concerns for the 2020/21 harvest and moved UK feed wheat futures higher, up £6.05/t over the last week.

25 October 2019

In yesterday’s market commentary we briefly touched upon the spread between May-19 and Nov-20 UK feed wheat futures. At yesterday’s close the spread had widened further to £10.00/t, comfortably the largest gap between November and May contracts for this time of year over the past 10 years.

23 October 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) increased £0.30/t from Monday to close yesterday at £135.40/t. At 11.30am Nov-19 futures were up £1.60/t at £137.00/t.

22 October 2019

Oilseed rape prices have come under increasing pressure throughout October. Yet with the fundamentals for a tight supply and demand outlook, why have domestic prices (delivered Erith) fallen by £17.50/t during October

18 October 2019

A forecast of Australian wheat production from National Australia Bank limited has pegged output at 15.5Mt, the latest forecast is 4.5Mt below the bank’s forecast from last month, and 2.5Mt below the latest USDA estimate.

16 October 2019

The latest USDA crop progress report was released yesterday. US maize harvest progress was slower than pre-report market polls anticipated.

15 October 2019

As October is fast drawing to an end, and what is a very uncertain November fast approaching, ex-farm sales of wheat and barley for next month have remained minimal.

11 October 2019

The cuts to US maize production in yesterday’s WASDE release were not as great as average trade expectations.

10 October 2019

Defra’s provisional production estimates for winter and spring barley at 8.180Mt were higher than market expectations.

9 October 2019

EU imports of rapeseed have hit record levels this season as the continent tries to meet its import requirements.

8 October 2019

Wheat production at 16.283Mt has come as little surprise given the yields recorded and crop prospects. Yet this does cement the export requirement and ongoing need for UK markets to be globally competitive for the foreseeable future.

4 October 2019

Although the UK is facing a greater supply, domestic demand so far in 2019/20 has reduced

3 October 2019

On Tuesday we published the second provisional results of the Cereal Quality Survey. The results are now beginning to reflect some of the challenges facing the industry with this year’s wheat crop.

2 October 2019

There has been some recent support in global grain markets based on weather and also a bullish stocks report released by the USDA on Monday.

1 October 2019

The underlying oilseed complex has been showing signs of support, allowing further upward potential for rapeseed markets.

27 September 2019

DEFRA released the final June Survey figures yesterday covering English agricultural plantings for 2019. These figures correlate to AHDB’s Planting and Variety survey areas, released in early July.

25 September 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) eased slightly to close at £135.75/t, a fall of £0.50/t from yesterday.

24 September 2019

Physical delivered oilseed rape prices for November delivery into Erith have been on an upward trend from March to August.

20 September 2019

UK 2018/19 ending stocks of wheat are up 11% from last season at 1,911Kt, the highest since 2015/16, according to the AHDB/Defra end-season balance sheet.

18 September 2019

We have seen domestic wheat prices trade within an £0.85/t channel over the last eight days. However, shifts in financial markets and politics have pushed the Nov-19 wheat price higher. We look at why.

17 September 2019

Saudi attack causes price spikes and ex-farm barley sales crash in November.

13 September 2019

This year the UK will be a net importer of rapeseed

11 September 2019

Oilseed rape prices, both EU futures and UK physical have seen some significant growth on the back of supply woes over the past couple of months.

10 September 2019

Prospects for Australian wheat production deteriorate

6 September 2019

Brexit, Forex and Supply, where are UK futures?

5 September 2019

The UK wheat harvest is now nearing completion, if yields continue in line with current estimates we tentatively forecast production of wheat at 15.9-16.2Mt. In a “normal” year the surplus wheat would find an export home primarily in the EU. However, this year is far from “normal”.

4 September 2019

The only Brexit certainty is uncertainty

3 September 2019

After a period of strengthening, sterling has taken a downwards turn and is once again on a weakening streak.

30 August 2019

The good weather over the past week has allowed for swift progress to be made with the GB wheat harvest.

28 August 2019

With just 65 days until the UK leaves the European Union, the direction of sterling continues to drive the direction of UK grain and oilseed futures.

23 August 2019

The latest AHDB harvest report highlights that the winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest are all but complete, at 98% and 95% respectively.

21 August 2019

Over the past few months the direction of US corn prices has been a significant focus for EU grain markets.

16 August 2019

Although the wheat harvest has been delayed by rain, by 13 August approximately 27% was complete

14 August 2019

Rapeseed prices could be set for support following the decision of the European Union to impose import duties on Indonesian biodiesel. The increase in duty on the fuel could result in a switch in demand to biodiesel produced using other vegetable oils.

13 August 2019

Yesterday’s WASDE release saw an upward revision to US maize estimates in stark contrast to industry estimates which expected a lower value from July’s release.

9 August 2019

Monday could signal the end of the recent spate of maize led volatility, or could kick it into a whole other gear. Over the last three and a bit month’s global grain volatility has been heavily dictated by uncertainty over the US maize production number.

7 August 2019

Yesterday the French farm ministry upped its estimate of soft wheat production by a further 1.2Mt from its July estimate. The ministry now forecast French production to reach 38.2Mt, up 12% year-on-year, the largest French soft wheat crop since 2015 (EU commission – 40.9Mt).

6 August 2019

European wheat markets moved down yesterday. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) closed at £144.80/t, down £1.15/t since Friday.

2 August 2019

Up to 30th July, 31% of the oilseed rape crop had been harvested.

31 July 2019

UK feed wheat continued to track upwards yesterday although only marginally. From Monday’s close UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) increased a further £0.25/t to close yesterday at £148.75/t. Paris milling wheat (Dec-19) also climbed yesterday, closing at €181.50/t, a rise of €1.00/t.

30 July 2019

The value of sterling has fallen to its weakest point against the dollar for more than two years ahead of a week of key economic data. Weakness in the value of sterling will act to support the value of UK agricultural products.

26 July 2019

European wheat markets have seen little movement this week. UK feed wheat futures (Dec-19) have traded within a £0.75 range from £146.25/t to £147.00/t since Monday. Paris milling wheat markets have traded between €179.25/t and €180.75/t at close yesterday. US grain markets have also been following a similar sideways trend. Chicago maize (Dec-19) traded within a $1.87 band and Chicago wheat (Dec-19) traded within $3.30 from Monday to yesterdays close. With cereal harvest underway in the northern hemisphere, yield and quality reports will be monitored closely to readjust any forecast currently in place.

24 July 2019

Global grain markets remained relatively flat yesterday with no real change in fundamentals affecting the markets.

23 July 2019

As we move through July and into August progress of global wheat harvests becomes increasingly important to price direction.

19 July 2019

UK feed wheat futures continued their recent decline yesterday. Earlier in the week we highlighted that the 20-day moving average had dropped below the 50-day moving average. The trend has continued over the course of the week and at yesterday’s close the 20-day average was sitting just £0.66/t above the 100-day average.

18 July 2019

European grain markets have dropped back down again this morning, after closing yesterday slightly higher.

17 July 2019

Yesterday, global grain continued to fall back from their recent rally. Nov-19 feed wheat lost £0.50/t to close at £146.75/t.

16 July 2019

In a return to the trend of a falling grain market, Nov-19 feed wheat futures closed lower yesterday at £147.25/t and have continued to fall this morning trading at £146.75/t at midday.

12 July 2019

UK oat production looks set to be the highest since 1973.

11 July 2019

The AHDB Crop Tour moved east yesterday, visiting Simon Brock at Swanton Morley Farms near Dereham, Norfolk.

10 July 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) fell further below the long term moving average yesterday. New-crop futures have fallen £4.20/t over the past two days, closing at £144.50/t

6 February 2019

Today has seen Defra release the latest update to the Basic Payment Scheme planted area dataset that was first released a year ago. The dataset looks specifically at land use including grassland but we’re concentrating on the main crop areas in England only.