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9 April 2020

As we move through unprecedented times, we often have to look outside the box to find the drivers of markets. Over the past fortnight, wheat prices have been increasingly driven by global macroeconomics. However, as the macroeconomics are increasingly factored in, markets for products that are substitutable for wheat also become key to market direction.

8 April 2020

The immediate impact is due to the loss of beer sales, through pubs, restaurants and events. Although there may be a partial mitigation by increases to retail sales

7 April 2020

Yesterday evening the first USDA crop progress report of the 2020/21 marketing year was released.

3 April 2020

The ADAS crop development report to the end of March, released today, gives us the first indications of how winter crops have fared over the winter and the progress of spring drilling so far. Unsurprisingly, for all winter crops there are a greater proportion sitting in the ‘poor to very poor condition’ category than at this point last year.

2 April 2020

In times of uncertainty, markets can act in a very volatile and erratic manner to news stories. This is especially true when we consider the impact of political intervention in grain markets. Over the past fortnight, we have heard a number of stories, particularly from the Black Sea, surrounding export restrictions for wheat in Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan.

1 April 2020

The prospects for an increased planted area has further added to the bearish tone in US maize markets.

31 March 2020

Paris rapeseed futures rose yesterday as the coronavirus temporarily curbs Malaysian palm oil production, despite Brent crude oil futures falling to an 18 year low.

27 March 2020

The value of sterling has continued to rally since my last GMD (Wednesday). At yesterday’s close £1=$1.220 and £1=€1.106. Sterling has continued to gain strength today. Dollar weakness is likely a key driver of the recent strength, with US data released yesterday showing a record number of citizens claiming for unemployment support.

25 March 2020

• The US government and senate have agreed a new stimulus package to try and reduce the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the US economy. The $2 trillion dollar package which includes a raft of measures aimed at supporting the US economy still needs to go through congress but is viewed as a step in the right direction.

24 March 2020

There was still a degree of volatility yesterday for sterling, as markets continue to react to global news.

20 March 2020

Sterling was volatile throughout the day as various news and information emerged, with knock-on impacts for UK feed wheat futures.

19 March 2020

The pound continued to fall yesterday against the dollar, reaching lows not recorded since 1985, finishing the day at £1=$1.1613. At 9:30 this morning, the pound had fallen to £1=$1.1563.

18 March 2020

Driving the gains in UK and Paris wheat futures yesterday was yet again currency, a surge in the value of the dollar and subsequent loss in the value of the pound and euro, shielding the domestic market from the overall continued bearish global sentiment.

17 March 2020

The European association Coceral revised its 2020/21 cereal production estimates from initial forecasts last month in a report released yesterday.

13 March 2020

Global macro-economic worries continue to be the dominant factors driving market sentiment for not just oilseed but also grain markets.

12 March 2020

Sterling has fallen to its lowest level since November 2019, following an emergency cut to UK interest rates. The cut by 50 basis points has been carried out by the Bank of England with the hope of reviving the UK economy amid Covid-19 fears.

11 March 2020

January wheat exports stand at 50.3Kt, with non-EU exports of 13.3Kt.

11 March 2020

UK markets are being driven by just two factors, global outlooks and domestic currency, both with potentially bearish long-term implications.

10 March 2020

Yesterday was a hard-hitting day for global commodities. We saw Brent crude oil futures trade at its lowest since 2016.

6 March 2020

GB compound feed production so far this season is down from 2018/19 due to reduced requirements by the cattle sector.

4 March 2020

A drop in sterling means that the €5.00/t rise seen in Paris rapeseed futures (May-20) from Friday to Tuesday equates to £8.95/t. Support is coming from proposals of OPEC cutting collective oil production by 1M barrels per day.

3 March 2020

UK milling wheat premiums (ex-farm UK, spot) currently sit ahead of the five year average, and are at the highest point they have been since the 2014/15 season. The recent rise has been driven by uncertainty about the size and quality of the new crop.

28 February 2020

New-crop UK feed wheat (Nov-20) remains at a large premium to Chicago maize (Dec-20), reaching £44.79/t on 27 February which could incentivise consumption of imported maize over domestic grains.

26 February 2020

European wheat markets took a hit on Monday which sustained into yesterday, amidst global market concern of the scale of the coronavirus. News of large production estimates for the Russian and Ukrainian wheat crop, further added to market pressure in a bleak week so far for wheat markets.

25 February 2020

Recently released Early Bird Survey (EBS) figures do not look promising for oilseed rape in the UK. At the end of last week Alex analysed a scenario outlook from the EBS data.

21 February 2020

This year is already one of the most challenging for growers in recent times and will be a memorable season for many number of years in the future.

20 February 2020

The latest Defra basics payments data was released this morning showing the total area of land eligible for direct payments in the 2019/20 cropping year for England. The data highlights some important and significant changes in crop areas relative to the Defra June Survey. Both surveys have their own statistical challenges, some of which were highlighted in David’s Grain Market Daily on Tuesday.

19 February 2020

In one of the biggest planting changes seen for many years, the area intended for spring wheat plantings has surged. Reports suggest large volumes of imported material has come into the UK to supplement domestic supplies.

18 February 2020

I may be paraphrasing Gordon Gekko when I say that information is the most valuable commodity. But it is true.

14 February 2020

Both old and new-crop UK wheat futures have risen since the rain began in September 2019.

13 February 2020

Now that we have passed the halfway point for this current marketing year, it is worth taking a look at how exports have fared this season so far, and theoretically examining what the degree of carryover could be.

12 February 2020

Today’s extended GMD is focusing on the large volume of UK maize imports, large South American maize supplies and a big export campaign for Black Sea maize. It is likely that these factors will contribute to increased pressure for UK barley prices over the remainder of this season, with barley prices already fighting to stay competitive.

11 February 2020

UK feed wheat futures (May-20) closed flat yesterday, at £154.25/t. A continued weakening of the euro against the dollar has somewhat protected European markets from the further falls seen in global markets.

7 February 2020

Although we saw support for oil markets from 20th Jan after the shutting down of Libya’s oil pipeline, since then oil has reduced by 15.75% after the coronavirus outbreak in China.

6 February 2020

A lot of attention has been placed on the impact of coronavirus on markets in the past fortnight, and while this is very relevant at the moment, the impact can belie the long-term direction of markets

5 February 2020

As negotiations with the EU about our future trading relationship continue and provide certainty, the value of the pound may well receive increased support.

4 February 2020

Global agricultural markets continue to be affected by concerns surrounding the impact of coronavirus on Asian regions. UK feed wheat futures (May-20) closed at £151.75/t yesterday, down £3.50/t from 27 January.

31 January 2020

UK wheat prices are capped by those in Europe as we meet import parity. With a falling MATIF market, this will bring the import ceiling lower and therefore pressure UK prices. UK feed wheat futures (May-20) have been following the track of MATIF closely.

30 January 2020

As we draw towards the end of the winter drilling window, it’s becoming more apparent that arable farmers may have to plant alternatives to winter wheat to produce grain for the 2020/21 marketing year.

29 January 2020

Although the value of new crop grain has recently come under some pressure, the premium to European maize has continued to grow.

28 January 2020

Wheat futures have lost some considerable ground in the past few days. Old crop (May-20) futures, have lost £3.45/t since last Tuesday. A large part of the recent fall stems from the fact that global wheat markets had somewhat overcooked themselves.

24 January 2020

Although political discourse can be a huge driver of global markets. Another vital parameter to engage with is global weather.

22 January 2020

UK wheat futures have continued to benefit from global wheat price increases recently. Concerns surrounding global wheat supply tightness and strong global demand going forward have supported prices.

21 January 2020

In recent weeks the value of UK rapeseed prices had risen considerably. However, in the latest AHDB delivered survey, oilseed rape (spot, Erith) was down £17.00/t, at £348.00/t. The fall was in part driven by the lack of trade guarantees, following the signing of a phase-one trade deal between the US and China, and partially by the growth in the value of sterling.

17 January 2020

UK wheat futures (May-20) closed yesterday at £155.50/t, down £1.95/t on the day before. Furthermore, the November contract closed at £164.25/t, down by £1.45/t.

15 January 2020

UK feed wheat futures (May-20) closed yesterday at £157.70/t, gaining £1.45/t on the day before. Furthermore, the November contract closed yesterday at £166.25/t, gaining £1.70/t on the day before.

14 January 2020

Old crop UK feed wheat futures (May-20) have strengthened this week, ending yesterday at £156.25/t as sterling continues to weaken.

10 January 2020

A difficult window for winter planting has meant many face increasing spring acreages. Spring barley seems a likely choice for spring drilling options.

9 January 2020

As we hit January we are constantly reminded about the lengths people claim they will go to in order to become a “new me” These range from going to the gym more, attempting dry January and we can hardly ignore Veganuary.

8 January 2020

Paris rapeseed futures (Feb-20) have been slowly rising over the past six weeks to close yesterday at a contract high of €416.50/t. This is the highest nearby price since March 2017.

7 January 2020

Major US markets have all been under a degree of pressure in 2020 following the US air strike in Iraq early on Friday 3 January.

3 January 2020

UK feed wheat futures (May-20) closed yesterday at £153.50/t, gaining £1.00/t into the new year. Furthermore, Nov-20 contract closed at £163.25/t, gaining £1.30/t.

2 January 2020

The average price for December 2019 was £143.12/t, which is 17% below the December 2018 price of £173.15/t.

31 December 2019

Looking forward into the new year, an important focus for new crop prospects will be weather related news and its effect on crop conditions.

20 December 2019

The latest 2019/20 EU supply and demand estimates have further raised wheat and barley production estimates.

19 December 2019

This morning Defra released the final estimates of 2019 production, including regional results. On a UK scale the results are largely unchanged versus the previous release in October.

18 December 2019

As at 16 December, the EU had imported 3.4Mt of rapeseed, 57% of estimated imports this season.

17 December 2019

A combination of a softening in China - US trade relations and a slight weakening of the pound has lent support to domestic markets.

13 December 2019

This season, UK rapeseed production has fallen to its lowest level since 2004, at 1.75Mt. Furthermore, EU production also hit fresh lows and new crop prospects in both the UK and the EU look limited. With that in mind we may have expected domestic rapeseed prices to be showing more support than they presently are.

11 December 2019

Yesterday evening the USDA released the December issue of the WASDE report. Also, UK export trade data for October was released.

10 December 2019

The first of the AHDB Arable Crop Reports has highlighted the impact of the wet autumn and disrupted winter planting with delayed emergence and poor development.

6 December 2019

Poor weather in France has continued to hinder fieldwork with French farmers still lagging behind in planting winter crops.

4 December 2019

Last week’s UK delivered survey contained our first prices for oilseed rape for harvest 2020. These ranged from £314.50/t to £318.50/t depending on delivery point with Erith priced at £318.50/t.

3 December 2019

While there are some supportive factors for old crop markets, caution is required for the extent to which global markets can lift.

29 November 2019

Oat production peaked at 1,082Kt, the highest levels since the 1970’s, which has raised questions over where this season’s surplus will end up?

28 November 2019

As rain continues to fall across the UK, progress in winter plantings remains hampered. According to the Environment Agency, England received 143% of the long term average rainfall in August-October, making 2019 the third wettest year in the last 20. Furthermore, rainfall in November has totalled 101% of the long term average so far.

27 November 2019

Oilseed rape planting intentions have seen a 23% drop in area, to 406Kha, from last year.

26 November 2019

An early recording of GB planting intentions for the 2020 harvest suggests a sharp fall in winter crops, largely because of the extremely wet weather throughout the autumn planting window.

22 November 2019

The latest International Grains Council (IGC) global supply and demand estimates point toward a continuation of the overall current bearish global grain market sentiment.

20 November 2019

With the UK domestic market reacting to ongoing adverse weather preventing winter crop planting, it’s important to consider winter planting in major wheat producing nations. This will have a significant impact on global markets.

19 November 2019

With new crop futures now somewhat prevented from gaining further relative to European origins, there are two main risks for new crop pricing for the foreseeable.

15 November 2019

From a price point, the relationship between old crop and new crop prices has stretched, however, the same can’t be said globally.

13 November 2019

The EU rapeseed deficit has continued to draw in large levels of the crop. Cumulative imports so far in 2019/20 (up to 10 Nov) have reached 2.68Mt, according to the EU commission.

12 November 2019

HMRC export data, released yesterday, states 341.0Kt of barley was exported from the UK in the month of September alone.

8 November 2019

This afternoon (17.00) the USDA will release its latest supply and demand estimates. The report will be watched closely for its assessment of US and southern hemisphere crops. Significant weather challenges have led to delays for northern hemisphere harvesting (and new crop planting) and driven concerns over conditions of South American crops.

6 November 2019

The EU is forecast to import 6.0Mt of rapeseed this season. So far this season, EU imports of rapeseed to 03 November have totalled 2.68Mt.

5 November 2019

Further mixed messages for global grain markets were released in yesterday’s USDA crop progress report, with additional supportive factors for the current crop year, but a somewhat bearish tone for new crop wheat.

1 November 2019

Looking into next year, global wheat futures for harvest 2020 will help to provide insight into the potential route wheat prices may take over the next twelve months.

30 October 2019

Since last Monday (21 October) Paris rapeseed futures (May-20) have generally followed an upward trend, gaining €5.25/t, to close yesterday at €379.75/t. The recent rise has been driven by support in other vegetable oil markets.

29 October 2019

Delayed and disrupted winter wheat planting has heightened concerns for the 2020/21 harvest and moved UK feed wheat futures higher, up £6.05/t over the last week.

25 October 2019

In yesterday’s market commentary we briefly touched upon the spread between May-19 and Nov-20 UK feed wheat futures. At yesterday’s close the spread had widened further to £10.00/t, comfortably the largest gap between November and May contracts for this time of year over the past 10 years.

23 October 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) increased £0.30/t from Monday to close yesterday at £135.40/t. At 11.30am Nov-19 futures were up £1.60/t at £137.00/t.

22 October 2019

Oilseed rape prices have come under increasing pressure throughout October. Yet with the fundamentals for a tight supply and demand outlook, why have domestic prices (delivered Erith) fallen by £17.50/t during October

18 October 2019

A forecast of Australian wheat production from National Australia Bank limited has pegged output at 15.5Mt, the latest forecast is 4.5Mt below the bank’s forecast from last month, and 2.5Mt below the latest USDA estimate.

16 October 2019

The latest USDA crop progress report was released yesterday. US maize harvest progress was slower than pre-report market polls anticipated.

15 October 2019

As October is fast drawing to an end, and what is a very uncertain November fast approaching, ex-farm sales of wheat and barley for next month have remained minimal.

11 October 2019

The cuts to US maize production in yesterday’s WASDE release were not as great as average trade expectations.

10 October 2019

Defra’s provisional production estimates for winter and spring barley at 8.180Mt were higher than market expectations.

9 October 2019

EU imports of rapeseed have hit record levels this season as the continent tries to meet its import requirements.

8 October 2019

Wheat production at 16.283Mt has come as little surprise given the yields recorded and crop prospects. Yet this does cement the export requirement and ongoing need for UK markets to be globally competitive for the foreseeable future.

4 October 2019

Although the UK is facing a greater supply, domestic demand so far in 2019/20 has reduced

3 October 2019

On Tuesday we published the second provisional results of the Cereal Quality Survey. The results are now beginning to reflect some of the challenges facing the industry with this year’s wheat crop.

2 October 2019

There has been some recent support in global grain markets based on weather and also a bullish stocks report released by the USDA on Monday.

1 October 2019

The underlying oilseed complex has been showing signs of support, allowing further upward potential for rapeseed markets.

27 September 2019

DEFRA released the final June Survey figures yesterday covering English agricultural plantings for 2019. These figures correlate to AHDB’s Planting and Variety survey areas, released in early July.

25 September 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) eased slightly to close at £135.75/t, a fall of £0.50/t from yesterday.

24 September 2019

Physical delivered oilseed rape prices for November delivery into Erith have been on an upward trend from March to August.

20 September 2019

UK 2018/19 ending stocks of wheat are up 11% from last season at 1,911Kt, the highest since 2015/16, according to the AHDB/Defra end-season balance sheet.

18 September 2019

We have seen domestic wheat prices trade within an £0.85/t channel over the last eight days. However, shifts in financial markets and politics have pushed the Nov-19 wheat price higher. We look at why.

17 September 2019

Saudi attack causes price spikes and ex-farm barley sales crash in November.

13 September 2019

This year the UK will be a net importer of rapeseed

11 September 2019

Oilseed rape prices, both EU futures and UK physical have seen some significant growth on the back of supply woes over the past couple of months.

10 September 2019

Prospects for Australian wheat production deteriorate

6 September 2019

Brexit, Forex and Supply, where are UK futures?

5 September 2019

The UK wheat harvest is now nearing completion, if yields continue in line with current estimates we tentatively forecast production of wheat at 15.9-16.2Mt. In a “normal” year the surplus wheat would find an export home primarily in the EU. However, this year is far from “normal”.

4 September 2019

The only Brexit certainty is uncertainty

3 September 2019

After a period of strengthening, sterling has taken a downwards turn and is once again on a weakening streak.

30 August 2019

The good weather over the past week has allowed for swift progress to be made with the GB wheat harvest.

28 August 2019

With just 65 days until the UK leaves the European Union, the direction of sterling continues to drive the direction of UK grain and oilseed futures.

23 August 2019

The latest AHDB harvest report highlights that the winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest are all but complete, at 98% and 95% respectively.

21 August 2019

Over the past few months the direction of US corn prices has been a significant focus for EU grain markets.

16 August 2019

Although the wheat harvest has been delayed by rain, by 13 August approximately 27% was complete

14 August 2019

Rapeseed prices could be set for support following the decision of the European Union to impose import duties on Indonesian biodiesel. The increase in duty on the fuel could result in a switch in demand to biodiesel produced using other vegetable oils.

13 August 2019

Yesterday’s WASDE release saw an upward revision to US maize estimates in stark contrast to industry estimates which expected a lower value from July’s release.

9 August 2019

Monday could signal the end of the recent spate of maize led volatility, or could kick it into a whole other gear. Over the last three and a bit month’s global grain volatility has been heavily dictated by uncertainty over the US maize production number.

7 August 2019

Yesterday the French farm ministry upped its estimate of soft wheat production by a further 1.2Mt from its July estimate. The ministry now forecast French production to reach 38.2Mt, up 12% year-on-year, the largest French soft wheat crop since 2015 (EU commission – 40.9Mt).

6 August 2019

European wheat markets moved down yesterday. UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) closed at £144.80/t, down £1.15/t since Friday.

2 August 2019

Up to 30th July, 31% of the oilseed rape crop had been harvested.

31 July 2019

UK feed wheat continued to track upwards yesterday although only marginally. From Monday’s close UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) increased a further £0.25/t to close yesterday at £148.75/t. Paris milling wheat (Dec-19) also climbed yesterday, closing at €181.50/t, a rise of €1.00/t.

30 July 2019

The value of sterling has fallen to its weakest point against the dollar for more than two years ahead of a week of key economic data. Weakness in the value of sterling will act to support the value of UK agricultural products.

26 July 2019

European wheat markets have seen little movement this week. UK feed wheat futures (Dec-19) have traded within a £0.75 range from £146.25/t to £147.00/t since Monday. Paris milling wheat markets have traded between €179.25/t and €180.75/t at close yesterday. US grain markets have also been following a similar sideways trend. Chicago maize (Dec-19) traded within a $1.87 band and Chicago wheat (Dec-19) traded within $3.30 from Monday to yesterdays close. With cereal harvest underway in the northern hemisphere, yield and quality reports will be monitored closely to readjust any forecast currently in place.

24 July 2019

Global grain markets remained relatively flat yesterday with no real change in fundamentals affecting the markets.

23 July 2019

As we move through July and into August progress of global wheat harvests becomes increasingly important to price direction.

19 July 2019

UK feed wheat futures continued their recent decline yesterday. Earlier in the week we highlighted that the 20-day moving average had dropped below the 50-day moving average. The trend has continued over the course of the week and at yesterday’s close the 20-day average was sitting just £0.66/t above the 100-day average.

18 July 2019

European grain markets have dropped back down again this morning, after closing yesterday slightly higher.

17 July 2019

Yesterday, global grain continued to fall back from their recent rally. Nov-19 feed wheat lost £0.50/t to close at £146.75/t.

16 July 2019

In a return to the trend of a falling grain market, Nov-19 feed wheat futures closed lower yesterday at £147.25/t and have continued to fall this morning trading at £146.75/t at midday.

12 July 2019

UK oat production looks set to be the highest since 1973.

11 July 2019

The AHDB Crop Tour moved east yesterday, visiting Simon Brock at Swanton Morley Farms near Dereham, Norfolk.

10 July 2019

UK feed wheat futures (Nov-19) fell further below the long term moving average yesterday. New-crop futures have fallen £4.20/t over the past two days, closing at £144.50/t

6 February 2019

Today has seen Defra release the latest update to the Basic Payment Scheme planted area dataset that was first released a year ago. The dataset looks specifically at land use including grassland but we’re concentrating on the main crop areas in England only.