13 August 2020
With England and Scotland wheat production likely to be sub-10.2Mt, and despite opening stocks around 3.4Mt, we are facing a pretty significant deficit. In theory, we could make up much of this shortfall with imported wheat or maize. This season, in the wake of coronavirus capping ethanol demand, maize is exceedingly cheap. As a result the hole in grain for animal feed, ethanol and distilling will more than likely be filled by imported maize. This increased demand for maize is exacerbated by the tariffs set to be applied to wheat imports from January, whilst maize can be imported tariff free.