Milk forecasting forum

Updated 19 September 2024

Milk production is a fundamental driver of market dynamics in Great Britain. We hold a milk forecasting forum twice a year, where representatives from across the industry debate, analyse and discuss the key factors influencing production. Here you can find the latest information shared with the group.

The AHDB Milk Forecasting Forum (MFF) met on the 18 September to discuss the factors impacting on future GB milk production. The main points of conversation were focussed around:

• Recent trends in herd size and milk yields. In particular, the discussions focussed on how farmers may adjust their herds and management strategies to maximise returns. Labour issue, higher cost of borrowing and volatility in feed cost remain cause of concern.
• The effect of herd size is regional, with some regions having to comply with tighter NVZ rules, the decline in herd size could be more.
• With poor quality silage this year, going forward, farmers will have to spend more on high protein feed to support yields.
• Feed costs could increase if soy is replaced following the deforestation regulations.
• Increasing worry from farmers regarding government support coming through.
• Impact of bluetongue minimal as of now and could be felt next year.
• What will be the impact of decline in youngstock numbers on long-term rate of decline in milking herd.
• How recent recovery in milk prices could impact production during the autumn.
• Lot of uncertainty persists around weather, input cost, environmental rules and government support.
• The potential longer-term impact of environmental legislationon herd size and structure and inflation on input costs.

We've released a pack of the information discussed at the forum, which you can download from the Milk Forecasting Forum webpage.

We will be updating our production forecast later this month (September 2024). In the meantime, our June forecast update can be found below.

Updated 26 September 2024

GB milk production for the 2024/25 season is forecast to reach 12.28 bn litres, 0.3% less than the previous milk year, according to our September forecast update

Please read the forecast update article.

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